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Honored Advisor

remember

For the producers on this marketing thread that have assets in "tin cans" with the doors welded shut and this nice weather that is either here or is coming...

 

.RUN THE FANS

 

Keep it in condition

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13 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: remember

Thank you Hobby........

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Honored Advisor

If history repeats

Itself we are in for a bumpy ride.

 

Almost 100 years ago WW 1 was getting going good and farm commodities were becoming valuable.... we over produced and created an ag depression shortly after it was over. 

 

Happened again in the thirties for a different reason.

 

Mid fifties had a bad patch too

 

Then there were the eighties ,  just plain bad for many.

 

The one common thing about every one of them was over production after the year prices crashed,  when your are geared up and have debts created by over exuberance the first knee jerk reaction is "if it is cheaper we just have to have more to pay the bills"..

 

I don't think the production will rapper off for two more years because of prices. The only cutbacks will be if ol ma nature doesn't bless us with proper crop growing weather. The only thing that will do is add another year to the problem.  Every acre around here no matter how unproductive will be planted.  

 

Even in the thirties and eighties there were farmers making money. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: If history repeats

All true but one thing is different.

There is not excess production capability this time.  We are tapping potential pretty hard now.

 So what it will take is a leadership change and a change of direction on something like ethanol.

 

Or someone with a big supply dumps it like Russia did when they decided winning wars was more important than feeding people.

Lets see who might fit that senario......... say China.... 

 

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: key is....Corn Crusaders say 300 bu to (gulp) 600 bu acre corn possible

Ole boy out of Georgia is leading the Corn Crusade, too...he's grown corn for ONLY 8 years, ja...

Allow me, agcommers to introduce to YOU... Georgia's finest, RANDY DOWDY !!!

“THE CHALLENGE IS TO CHANGE,” says Dowdy, who farms in Brooks County, Ga. “I would not have made these yields without GOD'S FAVOR and if I was not willing to TRY SOMETHING NEW.”

 

He hit the record 503 bushels with DKC 62-08 at a plant population just north of 50,000 per acre.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Corn hybrids today, it is said, can reach 600 bushels per acre or much more, and he believes it. He say once a grower opens a bag of corn seed, yield potential is either retained or lost....

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Honored Advisor

Re: key is....Corn Crusaders say 300 bu to (gulp) 600 bu acre corn possible

SW, with just a little bit better weather last year we would have had to dig ourselves out from under a 15.5 billion bu crop. On the other side of it with just a little more erratic weather it could have been a 11.9 billion bu crop and good prices would be here.

 

South Africa is going to have to import corn this year to keep their domestic user's in business.

 

Brazil has been increasing domestic use of their crops too. Much of it for livestock production for the export market.  Wonder what Russia is going to trade them for their pork bellies and chicken? I'm guessing the ruble ain't it.

 

 Brazil could still open up an area the size of the I states for grain production.

 

I have to wonder how much more I could grow in the next 10 years if I was swinging for the fences instead of going for  the maximum profit on the least amount of expense. Might not be that much more net but would be more bu some years. Hmmmm

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Honored Advisor

Re: key is....Corn Crusaders say 300 bu to (gulp) 600 bu acre corn possible

My point wasn't too clear was it? and your example is very similar.  15.5 billion of corn would be less than a 15% increase.  It would take 3 years of that to get us back to a surplus that would carry us 6 months.

 

Between 1929 and 1932 a similar % of increase in production happened.  With 914 million bu of wheat in 1928 and 942 million in 1932. But carryover went up 300% and demand was flooded.

 

Which is my point,  I think we should ignore those who seem to have a need to blame production increases for those problems.

 

Most every time we see grain prices tank in an extreme fashion it is created by a collapse in demand.  Be it war, political choice, economic depression, etc.  Seldom in any of those examples did actual production increase greatly.

The 1928-1932 example,  we read over and over how farmers just kept increasing production but here is the actual wheat production from 1928-1935 in millions of bushels.  Production did not increase ----Demand collapsed and russia decided to starve a generation.

875.1  
914.4  
824.2  
 
886.5  
941.5  
756.3  
552.2  
526.1  

  1928 at the top and 1935 at the bottom        Wheat price fell from $1.04  to $0.38 per bushel

 

But the blame in education circles is always the farmers.....

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Honored Advisor

Re: key is....Corn Crusaders say 300 bu to (gulp) 600 bu acre corn possible

Lets all pick the date when US average corn production hits 500 bu/a.  Each guess puts $20 in the raffle.  The day it happens winner gets all.

 

I will hold the money in the mean time.  Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor

Re: key is....Corn Crusaders say 300 bu to (gulp) 600 bu acre corn possible

I want the year we are forced into hectares

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Honored Advisor

Re: key is....Corn Crusaders say 300 bu to (gulp) 600 bu acre corn possible

My idea will make us more money..........

 

Hectares could happen with searching for a legacy.  Smiley Happy

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