cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

running up the crash alert flag

for equities, but in the "all one market" world, everyone beware.

 

A slowing global economy'

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nordeas-chart-week-collapsing-us-import-demand

 

coupled with an almost surreal desire to spin every economic statisitic as positive (mostly due to the Bernanke massacre of bears) is flashing a warning light.

 

Overvaluation + record complacency = danger

 

 

0 Kudos
7 Replies
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: running up the crash alert flag

Sorry Nox, but almost all the ocean liner CEO's have come out some time ago and said this was their intent......there is a lot of capacity in the system while things have slowed.....and as such they have throttle back to save on fuel (quoted a pretty sizeable savings by cutting speed by 30-50%)......most of these CEO's have even went as far as talking with their customers......telling them that the trip was going to be a slower one so plan accordingly and we will hit our dock dates from door to door........

 

If you want a more real time transportation reading, look at truck freight in the U.S., seems that sector and all that are associated with it are doing better and better.......

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: running up the crash alert flag

I just have to chuckle a little inside everytime I read an economist that says the chances of a double dip are slim to none.  Apparently, none of them fully understood the first dip.  The same low interest funny money to buy houses is still there.  Last I read, it was somewhere around 40% of all houses bought today end up delinquent within six months.  Gasoline is over three bucks again, and the northeast is experiencing a very cold winter thus far.  While the gov't says there's no inflation, they must not have bought any tires lately.  Meats are experiencing all time highs as we speak.  Most of the nondiscretionary items are approaching or are at all time highs.  Obviously, this will put a damper on discretionary spending.  I've said all along that the U.S. would eventually send China right back into the stone age once we break our spending habit.  Foreclosures are already expected to increase and set records in 2011.  As a country, we're in worse shape today than we were a couple of years ago.  I realize there are companies that are in better shape, but it's because of their global business rather than their domestic business.  The really interesting thing is looking at the amount of money the big banks took from the gov't under the emergency fund.  I find it particularly interesting the amount of money Goldman Sachs took especially considering they showed a loss in only one quarter of minimal amount compared to the amount they borrowed from the gov't. 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Contributor

Re: running up the crash alert flag

Have to agree with the crux of the post Nox.  Maybe just paranoid, but is feels ominous.  The BDIY is certainly worrisome.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: running up the crash alert flag

Gored, you are expecting GDP to go negative again in the near future????  That's what needs to happen for a double dip......whats wrong with low interest home loans, that had nothing to do with what happened in the housing market......they were interest only loans and even worse on homes that were way to expensive for the individual with NO backgrounding on income or financial statements with NO money down......go try and get a mortgage now, the will ask for proof of everything and you will have to put minimum 20% down.....big difference..

 

As for oil, yes it is an issue if it crosses $100, however I would expect OPEC to step in and pump more oil.....they do not want oil over $100 as they know it will kill them in the end, just like it did a couple years ago.....they like that trading range of $75-85......its been stated over and over, even when oil was $150.......

 

Food has gone up a little, but overall the food companies are going to try and absorb as much of that reduced margin as possible, not to mention their raw commodity cost are no were near what their SG&A is on a per unit basis, that whole grain higher food higher $hit is for the birds......whats in a box of corn flakes $0.20 of $5 corn.....really......

 

Consumer goods and durable goods have not gone up much at all, if anything there is still pricing pressure there which will likely keep that in check.....

 

China is not going back to the stone age....really

 

The fact that at the end of the day TARP only cost the taxpayers about 20B.....thats chump change in a trillion dollar economy.......

 

Your comments on the banks answer your own question/comment......banks most likely took the worst case senerio amount when the coffers were open......and once they realized things weren't that bad and house keeping would clean a lot of it up, gave it back......

 

Generally speaking all the bailouts and TARP have cost the taxpayers very little, do I agree with all of it, NO, BUT it was a small price to pay versus the alternative........our biggest issue going forward to getting spending under control without impeding a slow but steady recovery......the deficit is not out of control, YET, but it has to be dealt with NOW.......

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: running up the crash alert flag

Stagflation---Buffet said it 3 years ago and Japan has had it for a decade---guess we will see ?

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

hi Sou Tx, BDIY hitting the skids

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: running up the crash alert flag

Nox, I'm not inclined to be pessimistic. And, how would I adjust my marketing plan in any case? Speed up selling?

 

At this point I believe grain commodities have the best set up since the summer of 2007. I'm not saying that the outcome will be the same, but I don't believe grain commodities are affected by the possible negative market signals very much. There are also many general positive market signals. For one, China is very actively managing it's economy in a way only a centralized economy can.

 

As someone else has said, grains are going to be tight until N America is well on the way to a very good crop - if it gets one. I am not a real follower of some of the industrial metals, etc, but I think by next summer the boom continues. I think most of the skeletons have been looked at in almost all the closets. I think there is little the market isn't aware of. My biggest worry now (not much) is that Britian could misjudge and slow it's economy too much with spending cutbacks in too short a period. That would be an economic and political wake up call heard round the world.

0 Kudos