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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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seasonality

FC stone today came out with charts of seasonality movements in dec corn and nov beans.

 

Charts were based on three year. 5 year and ten year averages.

 

Somehow it seems like a plea to ignore the weather.... in marketing crops.

 

If we followed that lead we would have missed 2012 and 2013 pricing opportunities.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,993
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: seasonality

Let me guess....about now and next week or so
Is prime time sales......

But with the corn firing, crop conditions falling...
We might be at "the start of something big"
Advisor
Posts: 291
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
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Spfld Trip

Drove to Springfield today up route 33 to Pana, from 116 to 48 to Spfld through Taylorville, Rochester area.   I have to admit, the worst corn on the trip was the 10 miles through our area, however things don't look normal up there.   Early this morning it looked good from the road, but by 4 this evening on the return trip the heat was taking a toll.   Most corn I saw had just tasseled or was pollinating.   You could see the variability from mile to mile with the haves and have nots.   Soybean crops looked weak.   

 

Alot of my neighbors are in agreement that combines won't see corn down here......and beans are going fast as well.    Flowering or early pods and now plants can't even keep themselves alive.   We're staring down 100 degree heat for the next 4 days and no chances in any long range forecast stretching into mid August.

 

It's all RMA payment and hoping we get a bump in the Harvest Price Option.   It's over.   My OC 2016 corn is my only point of interest at present.   Nothing else matters.

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Spfld Trip

[ Edited ]

The point on the average use by stone is to take the eye off the problems and tell us to play the averages and sell before the harvest slide to lower prices.  On average over the years you will be right.  On those years when the crop is down you will be wrong.  but that doesn't happen but one year out of 5........

 

America has evolved up the idiot scale so far that each of us needs to hear the word from our own special guru.  The one who says what we want to hear............ on nearly every issue.  And we all sit in hot water waiting for the guru to say jump or don't jump.

 

These are the times when guru's can put a double hurt on you.  "Hedge, sell and hedge all spring cause every crop is a record crop and will crush you."  Carry out will be so big we will need to store it in Nevada between two mountain ranges... all three months of it.

Now what you see out your door is a deteriating yield.  The second lie is "crop insurance coupled with early sales protects your hedge losses." (when your banker--or you ----thinks your crop insurance is covering your expenses.)  

So if you follow the advice you end up using your insurance proceeds to pay the losses on your marketing contracts with nothing to help with expenses that are still due.  It can take 5 years to get over that..........or never get over it.

Watching a crop die or hail out has never been a sad day, but watching a crop die or hail out with it under contract for delivery or hedged is a terrible day.  It will take months to figure out how much you lost.  months when someone else says you must take it to harvest or carry those losses into the future.  In your head the averages just don't matter at that point.

Advisor
Posts: 291
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
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That's a good summary of truths

I'm probably the worst marketer ever, however I was not sitting on forward contracts in 2012 when our entire 875 acres of corn averaged ZERO.    I wasn't sitting on wheat contracts when I raised wheat with head sprout damage and couldn't  unload it.    I didn't forward contract my beans last year when everyone told me to sell because they were going Sub 8.   (I sold entire crop for $ 10.20 avg) and hence held my entire 2016 corn crop and still have it.    When the prices plunged this spring and summer, the local commercials were warning to get rid of it now at $ 3.40 cause it was going to $3 or less.

 

I've managed to get through it mostly making a profit, but it is getting more nerve racking every year.   RMA changing rules on failed planting and replant dates in a year like this where we replanted nearly 1K acres, some of it twice...and now haven't had a drop of rain since May 18th save 1/2 inch.   Now we're fighting severe dicamba damage on substantial number of bean acres.   

 

These sucks to be me years will wear you down in a hurry.  Makes one weary.    Thoughts to those experiencing weather woes.  

 

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 370
Registered: ‎05-16-2010
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Re: Spfld Trip

SW I have had that concern for years now.  When at presentations and market meetings I have asked what I pay the rest of my expenses with if I use crop insurance to fix marketing.  I usually get snickered at and told that situation usually doesn't happen.  Maybe not, but when it does like you say it takes years to work out of.  I know some think I just plod along in my Flintstone car but it's still running fine after 44 years.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 910
Registered: ‎01-03-2015
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Re: seasonality

What recourse do you have on the dicamb
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,069
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: seasonality

[ Edited ]

Good question...been hearing it is moving about...but haven't seen any locally...what is the recourse if the product was applied as the label requires? It is a very strict lable. Seems if you follow it and it still moves...the label maker ought to chip in right?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: seasonality

That is going to become a very hot button issue.....

 

It is actually a move that forces every neighbor within 20 miles to buy the monsanto product to defend himself.

 

It is the worst of the monsatan schemes.

 

Dicamba is one of the most disgusting herbicides on the market.... and there is no other reason to breed resistance to it than self defense.

 

It doesn't kill anything on its own. It enhances the killing power of other herbicides....Alone it just makes a plant sick  

The plant eventually survives the sickness to reproduce and die of old age.  But in the process it makes everything else around it sick.....for miles around.  

One of those "enhances the mix" herbicides...... There was no good reason to approve of that trait other than it gives an unfair advantage to the producer of the tolerant soybeans in marketing.... Because the more dicamba sprayed in the area the more damage ......... It flies from field to field like it had a free pass on Southwest.