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Veteran Advisor

sellin'

Gonna clean up old crop today- the end of a rather frustrating but quite profitable year. good thing was definitely didn't sell anything in the hole.

 

Will move to hedged on first 25% of 2011- will use futures, not saying I'll be sort forever.

 

Next week, next month, next year the mortage securitization mess is going to explode into a full blown economic crisis.

 

Bank stocks are indicating that the game may be on.

 

Best, h

6 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: sellin'

Another thing I'm watching is the dollar.  Everyone is writing it off just like in early 2008 and again in late 2009, right before we had explosive rallies.  Today's low is getting closer to the uptrend line drawn off of those lows.  Other tech indicators are deeply oversold as well as the % of bullish traders being at very very low levels.  Euro, yen, and others are way overheated against the dollar in my opinion.  I think everyone is overestimating the impact that more QE can really have.  I keep looking at Japan as the model of QE, which did them nothing except kill their equity market and appreciate their currency.  The talking heads say it is because they didn't do enough QE or stimulus at the time to counter deflation.  Tricky part is how do you know at the time what amount is too much or not enough?

 

I think that many commodity markets are setting themselves up for a fall, especially if I'm right and the dollar strengthens dramatically.  But I'm sure that there will be those that outperform due to supply / demand fundamentals.

 

The foreclosure mess will be interesting.

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Contributor

Re: sellin'

Good decision to sell...

I agree that the mortgage / foreclosure nightmare will become a huge crisis in 2011...

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Senior Contributor

Re: sellin'

fwiw Mortgages blew up in 08, early 09/

 

2 yr old news.

 

MBS crashed and much is comong back nicely.

 

there is risk in owning land.

 

Pritch

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Veteran Advisor

Re: sellin'

Word is that John Paulson has his funds stuffed to the gills with MBS and has his goons out treatening legislators to make sure that the rule of law doesn't get in the way of his making another killing.

 

He may get his way but either way it is bad. People are going to rightly conclude that they got hosed and are going to walk away from mortgages at a greater pace.

 

Buyers won't touch these properties with a ten foot pole.

 

Wall street killed us.

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Senior Advisor

Re: sellin'

Rumor out today nox (Oct 20) that some of those mortgage bundles sold to 5 different pension funds. Yes the same bundles sold 5 different times.

 

It sound like the fraus ius beyond belief. Where in the heck is the justice department & the FBI?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: sellin'

Hey, they're just creatin' jobs.

 

You some sort of Saul Alinsky socialist or something?

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