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hardnox
Advisor

signs of life

Corn avoided trade that would void the interpretation of a wave 2 bottom retest- by a few cents in CH, .25 in CK. Not enough upside confirming action to verify yet.

 

Wheat also has a potentially complete pattern to the downside but also no confirming price action yet.

 

I remain agnostic on the matter. Would probably feel pretty optimistic if I didn't see the rally in oil and stocks as merely a short squeeze.

 

 

10 Replies
Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Just curious

do you ever look back on your posts and wonder if maybe turning over things to a professional advisory service might be a good move? Just thinking of how perma-bullish you were just a couple of years ago when you postulated that oil would have an extremely difficult time of ever going below the $80 per barrel mark (this was while oil was trading at $110 bucks, but...due to the remarkable wonders of free markets....capitalists were also figuring out how to extract it from ancient deposits in new ways and ...here we are....$30 per barrel oil.

 

THe same is going to be true with grains....the low relative prices of corn and beans ( and I know...someone will say that $3 corn and $8 soybeans ain't dirt cheap...well...there is a thing called dollar inflation at play...but moving on...) are going to both stimulate demand and lower production, and  in 18 months or so we are going to wake up with "high priced" corn again and someone will again be on here talking about new price plateaus, etc.

 

There is a saying about failing to see the forest cause some trees get in your way and I think that is a very apt old platitude. I call it the happy horsesheet phenomema....whenever things are good, you have those hhs practitioners thinking that the gravy train is going on forever , and when things take a dive, the same guys are saying the sun is nevah gonna come up again. A form of a bi-polar mind and not a good mindset for extracting long term profits from variable markets.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

I`ll admit that I got completely caught flatfooted on oil going below $30 ..just 2 years ago road diesel was $4, now it`s $1.95.  "they" must`ve really been screwing us all those years, but I don`t see how this lasts.  The politics of punishing Putin (mission accomplished) and breaking the Baakens (mission accomplished) then we`re back to being at the mercy of what ever is left of opec again with N Dakotans too shell shocked to flip the switches on the "donkeys" again. 

 

I don`t want to use the words "has to" but I don`t see how we can rally corn to C.O.P levels until oil doubles in price.

 

By right`s way we should have inflation like crazy, but I think things are so bad we might even be in a depression just not realize it yet that this QE printing gets no traction.  I think that`s why they stopped (at least officially)  because it wasn`t working anyway.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

Mother nature can rally the price of corn long before the price of oil does.............just sayin'   Smiley Wink

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

I agree Roarin`, The Great Lakes have 7% ice  hope hope hope.   But, if it`s a popcorn toot it`s probably something to be sold.  If oil rallied back to $75 or better $100, we could have a sustainable decent price.  🙂

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

I'm afraid most of us on here are just in the  wrong location to see how well things are.

 

The wife and I spent most of the last half of Jan in Kauai, Hawaii, our fourth stay there, last one was three years ago. Twice at least as much traffic on the  roads as 3 years ago. Three years ago there was twice as much as the trip before, getting crowded there now. Prices are high there.

 

Two weeks ago we went for a drive and got as far away as Orlando, Florida. Drove on the weekend both ways, NO shortage of vehicles on the roads. Three lane or more interstate from Chattanooga, Tenn to the split to Orlando, we hit stop and go traffic each way. It was the weekend, nothing special not spring break or anything. Lots of fuel going away.

 

Spent a Wed at Disney, there again not anything special about the day, I've been there three times between Christmas and New year's day.(peak season), Disney world was that full on Wed of a not special week. Took Thursday off to rest our undercarriage, went to cocco beach, also lots of people (with kids)'

Went to the two universal studios parks on Fri also thousands and thousands of people in attendance, with corresponding lines. 

 

Literally millions of dollars being spent at those park's every day. More plastic less cash every time we go on a drive about, even at the gas stations for just candy and pop.

 

Disney is up 10% year over year in attendance, I'll beUniversal is too. 

 

The thing about this is we are here in fly over country and we are missing "IT". 

 

Times are great.

 

 

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

There's probably more than one reason that Disney doesn't build a site in South Podunk County.................................Smiley Wink

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

All the fed money printing went to Wallstreet, very little trickeled down to the mainstreet of Podunk.

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lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Just curious

Just got back from a kwik trip to Grand Island, NE.

Was surprised at how few trucks on I80 between Omaha and Grand Island.

Much less than other times I've been on that stretch of road.

Saw one guy seeding grain and one guy working ground.

Fair amount of water standing in fields but not as much in the Platte as I would have guessed.

Far less birds in the air compared to earlier trips in March.

Have they gone north early this year?

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Just curious

The birds are farther east.

For the last three weeks we have had enormous vees of geese going over, most at high altitudes and every singe group has been going east to west

 

Been quite a few years since I've seen this many going over this area. Yesterday just after lunch one group of what appeared to be probably +1000 was 95% snow geese.

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