ACCORDING to the recently released ABARES Agricultural commodities September Quarter 2014 report, Australian wheat production is forecast to decrease 10 per cent year-on-year in 2014-15, to 24.2 million tonnes.
ABARES suggests the significant decline is underpinned by an expected 12pc fall in the average wheat yield across all states, however, if realised in Western Australia and South Australia, the decline will follow well above average yields recorded in 2013-14.
While the 2014-15 season opened promisingly, the conditions over winter were mixed, resulting in variable crop prospects. ABARES noted sufficient and timely rainfall during spring will be critical for realising the forecast wheat production, especially in the soil moisture deficient regions.
With production forecast to decline, so too are exports, although less dramatically, as a significant volume of carryover stocks from 2013-14 are likely to be exported this financial year.
Reflecting plentiful world supply, a fall in export prices is expected in 2014-15, underpinning ABARES' forecast for the value of Australian wheat exports to decline 8pc year-on-year, to $5.6 billion.
During 2013-14, the three most valuable wheat export markets for Australia were China, Indonesia and Vietnam.
