cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
hwr247
Senior Contributor

so what about next year?

if beans are stacked to the proverbial ceiling what will we plant? i know this is early but prob time to make some plans dont u think?? maybe its time to bring crp back to 35-50 million acres! How about the old set aside but instead of 10% make it 35-50%! Afterall a lot of farmers are 50/50 in rotation. Or are we putting heads in the sand as if it will all be ok somehow. thats a crock in my book it will never be the same. Once again we have to dream up a use for them like soy ink and plastic shopping bags back in the 80’s. How about 2x4’s made from beans. Theirs a building boom going on lets cash in! lol
Sorry for being such a sarcastic pessimist but this will take years if not decades to fix. Like the last embargo it took a generation to pass away so it became a footnote in history books
0 Kudos
9 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

It will take years and decades to train new farmers.....

 

I can't believe how hard it is to train young guys to set field equipment....  

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

Just like some of us, myself included didn`t think the good times would ever end, some of us think the bad times will never end.....and they probably won`t, sad to say Smiley Sad   If we have less than perfect crops, the prices will go up, but won`t last long.

 

JMO Inputs will have to come down to match the sucky prices we are offered.  That will be seed, fertilizer and unfortunately land prices.   Most of us own land and that`s our "401K" that`s our retirement, if we planned on renting out X amount of acres for $300/a at age 75 and live like a king until we croak, we might have to adjust our expectations and figure $100/acre and retire more like a schoolhouse janitor.

 

The other thing is, our high priced land was the "equity" that we have been burning until $7 corn came back, well surprise surprise surprise Sgt Carter, it ain`t coming back (God I wouldn`t mind being wrong about that).  But the first step is admitting you have a problem.

 

So, maybe it isn`t so much grain is too cheap as it is, inputs are too high. It seems every manufactured and mined  item in the world is done at or below cost of production, so farming probably won`t be any different.  Which is a shame because food is already the biggest bargain in the world, but we aren`t immune in the race to the bottom.

 

There will probably be winners (if you can call them that) who will keep producing $3,$4 soybeans and other areas that won`t last long if beans dip below $8 for an extended period of time, that will determine where things will be grown in the future.

0 Kudos
Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

Im doing some major restructuring. I lost a bunch of ground to CRP. My landlord is my grandfather. The government was looking to enroll 40,000 acres into CRP in Michigan. My 83 year old grandfather signed over a couple hundred acres for the next 10 years because he thought Donald Trump was going to destroy the country, and he wanted all he could get... Not joking. Fortunately, me and my wife bought 80 acres years ago before land got expensive. We have diversified our operation with cattle, seed and now trucking. We both have very good off farm income. I love crop farming, but growth is very hard, especially when the patriarch generation has such a pessimistic view of farming. I started with nothing, for now I operate on roughly 200 acres. Last fall I even accomplished a personal goal of mine; to be featured in a farming magazine. Im selling a beautiful line of older JD equipment to put our money into more cattle and possibly another/upgraded semi trailer. We have even thought about moving our farm west of the Mississippi, because we love the west. Without an obligation to family owned land, we are pretty much set free to go anywhere and do anything.  

 

This is probably not the answer you were expecting, but its reality for me.

0 Kudos
hwr247
Senior Contributor

Re: so what about next year?

Too bad your grandfather did that. He must have had some insight from past experiences to put it into crp. I have been farming for 45 years and when ever there was an uptick to the market especially the last one of beans in the teens and $7.00 corn i knew iprices would come down and end up higher than the hitorical average like $9 and $4. Im afraid they will go back down to where they were before like $4-5 beans and $2 corn and $2.5-3.00 wheat. In the land of extra plenty we are punished for being too good at what we do! 

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

There is a next year ?
0 Kudos
hwr247
Senior Contributor

Re: so what about next year?

theres always a next year. what u do for a living may be different the way things are going.
Amazing that nh3 is $525 now! I spose fert companies are expecting bean acres to give way to more acres that need it
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

Wow,

 

got the tour of that 1.95 million bu bin at the e plant today. The thing is 29 wide rings high, 156 ft in diameter. Bottom 7 rings are four layers thick, each one about 1/4" thick. Each joint has two connection plates on each side of the sheets, 17,500 1/2" bolts per ring. 

 

The power sweep is simply massive, chain conveyer sweep. Their plan is to fill it four times a year. Twice a total clean out.

 

They had their head grain buyer from Camilla, Georgia there as a guide.

Very interesting guy. To keep that 45,000,000 bu plant going they have five dedicated unit trains hauling corn in from as far away as the east side of Des Moines, Iowa.

Most from Ill, ind, Ohio, Missouri, but Iowa has sent corn there too..

 

Was surprised not more were there for the tour, three tours, first two full,  third only a few. Was allowed to go down into the basement of the pit, 12 feet wide, 2300bu, massive chain conveying system and dedicated leg, 30,000 bu/hr.

 

I was only one that showed up in my country Cadillac (a semi loaded with corn )

 

They have been having a steady 200ish loads,a day coming in.

 

They are planning on several next years...

0 Kudos
JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

One good way to encourage Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Ukraine, India and others to plant more soybeans would be to reduce our plantings so their prices and market share increase.  It's a global market.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: so what about next year?

Yes, if you have land laying around and most countries do, it makes sense to grow something on it and hopefully make some money.  Especially as soil is more defined as "a item to hold a plant up" with the advent of increasing technology.  So, no shortage of countries scrambling to sell what they grow.....I mean that`s just the way it is, we no longer hold a monopoly on food production. 

 

So, what are we gonna do? Keep doing what we`re doing, with corn in a $1.50 to $8  (price mostly in the bottom 1/3rd of that range) navigate that or go broke?   If we continue to go this route, I see why we have groups as "Farmers for Free Trade" springing up, that basically kiss butt to "sell our production because I have too much personally invested" the greater US economy be damned. 

 

Or go back to the 1980s farm programs of price supports and set-a-sides.   I understand no one likes that route, however it may be the one solution that keeps intact farming as we`ve known it.  If Brazilian beans are imported into the North Carolina ports, a $3 tariff is slapped on them.  And we provide mostly for a domestic market, only trading where we see benefits. 

 

I think with the latter, out of necessity there would be more grass fed beef and pasture pork and free range chicken to use the land taken out of row crops.  "Farmer markets" type farms would spring up.  Maybe a crop farmer that was "Corn, soybeans and Miami" in the past would raise 5, 10 acres of lettuce, carrots and strawberries and perhaps a greenhouse to stay wall to wall employed in the winter.   That way instead of a "2,000 mile sandwich, all the ingredients would come from a 10 mile radius.  

 

But lack of money and empathy from consumers and taxpayers will push us towards the former "we better get ours!  The heck will the steel industry and auto industry!  Who`s butt we gotta kiss to get a nickel more for our beans?".     Smiley Happy

0 Kudos