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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

so what is normal

few post down I made the comment that 155 is more normal

 

and buck responded

 

Advisor
Posts: 937
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
 

40 year trend is 162 usda linear trend is 168.  normal isnt 155.

 

I guess the real answer in farming is, nothing is normal.

 

BUT

 

Using last 15 years of data;  The average is 148ish.  The trendline using these years is 159ish

 

In the last 15 years we have been above 155 exactly 4 times.  2004, 2009, 2013, 2014.  I think pretty much everyone agrees that 2004 and 2014 where NOT AVERAGE YEARS.  They were special years.  2009 and 2013 where a bit more variable, but again I doubt anyone would call them average.

 

I am sorry, but the fact we have been above 155 only 4 times, above 162 only 2 times, and above 168 only once.

 

I think 155 or under is a way better number to start with than 166 or 168 or whatever the hell the dumass ambulance chasers are using.

 

Keep in mind the difference between avearge and special with corn comes down to July and maybe first week or two of August.  Even the wet and cool crowd is saying July is going to be hot and dry.  A cool and wet May and June follwed by a hot and dry July is the makings of sub 150 crop.

 

have a good weekend

 

Year Corn Soya
2000 136.9 38.1
2001 138.2 39.6
2002 130 37.8
2003 142.2 33.9
2004 160.4 42.2
2005 147.9 43.3
2006 149.1 42.9
2007 150.7 41.7
2008 153.9 39.7
2009 164.7 44
2010 152.8 43.5
2011 147.2 41.9
2012 123.4 39.6
2013 158.8 43.3
2014 171 47.8
     
Avg 148.48 41.28667
Trendline Approx 159 45.1
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11 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: so what is normal

We will find out some year that the higher the prediction, the harder it is just to reach normal.  We have been very blessed in this country to have the crops we have had.  Almost everyone is overly complacent with the crop supplies currently and expect this kind of trend to continue. Of course all sectors will be crying big time if there is an actual shortage and the crop prices go much higher.....just have to back to 2012 for this history lesson.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: so what is normal

What that means is we have a history anda trend in place that has worked 30, 40, 50 years even up to 100 years.  Farming practices have changed in that time and will continue in the future.  It also means that we are living in a time where we are due for back to back to back to back big years with a few small crops in between.  You need to break it down to what is the chance we can hit these type yields.  You may not like it but trend yields have proven themself true for a century.  Hmmmmm steak dinner remember and a good bottle of booze proved me right last year.

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Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: so what is normal

 We have already had back to back good years, 2013 and 2014. We are also just as due for back to back bad years.  Patrick

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formeragcofan
Frequent Contributor

Re: so what is normal

I think we will find that the less incentive the market provides to produce large yields, the less likely we are to consistantly reach "trendline" yields. It makes it much harder to justify high priced fungicides, seed treatments and stacked GMO hybrids.

I know I am watching pennies even closer than before. I'll bet I am not alone!

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Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: so what is normal

So true. The fungicides and insecticides will be a lot harder to sell with lower prices. They don't pencil out nearly as well when it takes twice as many bushels to pay for them.  Patrick

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: so what is normal

Pat 2013 was not a good year for corn by any stretch.

 

One good year in 2014, looks to me like we are due for average. 2013 was average, so we are due for another 160.

 

This is not a bearish number btw, and the end of the bear trend approaches.

 

I was just suggesting that MT expecting a 145 has no statistical basis, which it does not, as even his own data shows. His trend yield shows 159, hardly 145. Ignoring the trending effect of technology is fools's folly. A really good year would get us over 180 easy, not likely this year, but soon. For our farm, we start the year expecting the national yield to fall into a range, this year 135 for the low, 175 for the high, and a 162 as the most likely. The market is currently trading a 170 I would estimate. As the weeks pass, the crop will gravitate toward one of those numbers. As our plans are based upon TIME and none of this hypothetical S&D bs, it won't change a thing for us, but just sharing thoughts on the hypothetical is fun sometimes.

 

The odds of another 170 are pretty low as MT's data demonstrates. Thus, as Palouse always points out, the market is probably a touch ahead of reality. El Nino summers do not always produce good crops. Lots of assumptions in the market that are unlikely to be fulfilled. Both MT's 145, and Chicago's 170.

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IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: so what is normal

Time, I agree with pretty much everything you said.  There are extremes both ways.  The USDA usually starts off way too high for everyone's taste.  We can argue all day what actual trend is and whether we should use that or a straight ten year average.  In the end it really doesn't matter.  The other side of the coin is the perennial bullishness of Tigger.  A crop failure around every corner.  In all seriousness I have a feeling that 2015 could end lower than expected due to summer weather.  Just a gut feeling.  However, we are off to an exceptional start in many areas.  The first hurdle is getting the crop planted in good conditions.  That hurdle has been cleared by a vast majority.  I don't start every year planning for a poor crop or a crop failure.  I start out planning for average or above for my operation and adjust accordingly during the season. 

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: so what is normal

Great thought process Steve. We share your approach, although, sometimes I can screw things up.Smiley Happy

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: so what is normal

If you believe trend is really 1.81/year

Then 2014 SHOULD HAVE BEEN 179ish

As for a perfect start to 2015, don't think so
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