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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

so.......

apparently corn and soya yields are determined Sept 17th..........instead of June, July and August...........especailly in an accelerated growth year...........how can crop conditions increase on harvested corn to validate better yields............LOL, well actually there are several million acres of corn that look better chopped or otherwise compared to standing there trying to look like corn...........LMAO..........WOW

 

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/soybeans/soybe-yields-shockingly-large_10-ar26414

 

I don't know what to say other than...............HOLY MOLY..............the gibberish that spews sometimes is borderline reckless..........maybe we can get a crop conditions report around Christmas, just to catch any late planted stuff...........I think someone had a little too much too drink or smoke before they wrote that.........

 

8 bushel off last years corn crop.................LMFAO.............WOW...........guess they missed the millions and millions of acres being chopped, brush hogged, or otherwise zeroed out.............

 

 

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25 Replies
Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: so.......

I'm a little taken back by Grabanski's commentary.  Don't know of anybody that I read that shares the same thoughts as him.  He's based out of the Fargo ND area and there are better than expected yields in that area.  I think the soybeans are the most suprising but corn seems to be a little better than thought as well.  What is the most the USDA has ever revised their estimates up in the October through January reports?  He's saying they need to add back in a billion bushels of corn?  He is basically saying everybody except him has been off all year?  Perhaps hes short the market?  I don't know, seems as though there was just too many acres that were never harvested for grain to make his position believeable.

 

I would like to see a state by state breakdown of where the extra yield is coming from.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: so.......

MT,

 

Ya,  just had to shake my head.

 

Cutting our first irrig. bean field today ----around 30b/a.  normally 50.   Just too much heat stress.

 

Here's what I expect.    Bean yeilds and acres are going to be reported higher than expected.  

We will never get an explanation for where the acres came from.  

Corn harvest and acres will not change on reports.  

 

The best indicator of supply will, for the next 4 months, be the market and the fact that exports do not stop.  Otherwise the experts will buy time till they can praise the brasil crop.

We are so lucky to have the communication technology we enjoy today, helping us get a glimpse of changes as soon as the grain merchants see them.

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: so.......

There is NO POSSIBLE way that corn and beans could IMPROVE in conditions.  I guess all those 100 degree days and 25 days without rain is what it takes to raise record corn and bean yields. 

I'm not saying there isn't good yield here and there but its not ALL OVER. 

Once again the industry is in denial over this years yields.  Its just unreal to me that its so hard for people to understand. 

 

You have to take this report with the source,.   USDA

 

Price control move.  Thats all it is  

 

 

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Did this guy smoke crack:?...

I have traveled from Nebraska north to the Canadian border. Western , and Central Nebraska have a respectable crop under irrigation but no bin buster by any means, the whole state of South Dakota that is dryland has field after field of corn that was abandoned or baled and if 10% of the total corn in South Dakota sees a combine I will be amazed, North Dakota, Devils Lake area east had rain and and the crop looks better than the irrigated crops in Nebraska, but one must factor the huge pinto bean and canola acres in that state... So no matter how you look at it there is not going to be a billion extra bushels of corn. The problem is that this idiot with his educated article couldn't last ten minutes in the farming game. Instead he wants to tell us that worst drought on record had no effect on crops. In the end all I can say is when the actual figures hit the books, this crop is going to be short,...by the way my monsanto rep took out dryland test plots today and best yield was 54 bushel on corn! Thats from a pocket that saw almost average rainfall.............Take that for what it is worth!

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: so.......

I'll just say what I always say...we shall see.  I think it's kind of interesting actually.  Anything is possible in the markets, and the big moves are the ones no one sees coming. 

 

Whenever folks start saying that's impossible, no way, never happen, etc., that can be a good opportunity to take other people's money.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: so.......

Some folks are slow learners......First we have our own USDA reporting that they expect a record corn crop........before it is even planted......We all know where that prediction has ended up.  Now we have a few folks that think Brazil will have a record corn and soybean crop.......and again, yep, before it is even planted.   

Now I can understand predicting a record of planted acres.....but I was taught to never count your chickens before they hatch. This predicting and then assuming that there will be record production is doing a terrible dis-service for most of us in the ag industry.  The strangest thing is that people actually believe these pure fantasies........All I can say is that Walt Disney would be proud of this fantasia.

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Re: Did this guy smoke crack:?...Or what's the motive

What is Ray G.'s track record on comments like this. Based on what seems to be totally outrageous claims considering all the information on yields gathered so far I am thinking this guy just wants to see how many bulls he can rile up. Let's see, do I base my marketing on 1 guys view or the results of the PF tour, USDA reports and and many yield reports on this site. The problem right now is this market is starved for any info that can move it one way or the other so this might get some play on the trading floor whether it is factual or not.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Did this guy smoke crack:?...Or what's the motive

if you read to end of article, you'll see Mr. Grabanski(sp?) is simply marketing. the whole purpose of read is FOR SOLICITATION PURPOSES. His strategy appears to be (i almost said, might be - LOL) to shake out some more weaks.

He must be talking about Jack's magic beans from the beanstalk, and one good field from mid Mn. oh yeah!!

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: so.......

Pretty sad when a website like this has articles like this.........

Uneducated opinions are reckless......

Heck even Sue M who is bearish admitted today on WHO the better than expected will be countered as much or more with bad bad bad........

Again its sad that a professional ag website like this links to out of touch articles like this..........so out of touch its reckless.......dare I say more reckless than 170.......
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