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Advisor

soft red wheat

Really pressed the soft red. Gotta bring up a 10 year chart to see where the bottom is
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16 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: soft red wheat

Well cat my tealeaves say we should bounce from the 6 area but 5.75 is possible with rsi in single digits should be some kinda bounce coming. Seed guys sure seem to be selling a lotta beans say they are stealing spring wheat acres also. Wonder about fert prices are they gonna bounce from here wasn't much put last fall and the retailers know that.
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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

Writing was on the wall a long time ago... Dunno why you guys thought 7/bu for srw was too low. Canadian hrs putting huge pressure on wheat....

Seems the only way to grow this crop is to prr sell, and far in advance.. You sell into some nice carry w far away sales.

Hold onto your shorts
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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

Yep you're right farmer guy
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Senior Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

I never did find $4 bu prices for Canadian wheat, ave elevator price on the parairie. I dod find some $4.50 for 'feed wheat', whatever the definition for that would be. I suppose it could be HRS with low enough protein?

 

The other issue is producrt oriented buyers wouldn't necessarily be able to use HRS regardless in place of SRW due to milling and baking characteristics.

 

In any case, SWW out of the PNW for export is still $7+, or @90 cents premium to SRW.

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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

It's driving futures down. Chi wheat sometimes trades like 1 variety. Price can be regional specific: I.e if I grew sww here it would sprout. Not only that, but it's at a steep discount compared to where you are.. Srw has long been known to be taking acress from Hrww and doing better in the srw areas. It's been like that too long. Hrw had makings of a bull market, but that ended a long time ago. I'm 140/ acre ahead of the unproved schmuck at this point on Hrww, on some acres. At worst I'll b 75/ac ahead on my lowest contract price.

This marketing thing is a crap shoot. But I think we have a greater than 50% chance of a decline in wheat. You owe it to yourself to focus on the most probable outcome if you value your business, regardless of the positive/ negative outcome that results from your marketing strategy.
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Senior Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

I'm interested in where SRW is making headway against HRW. In my area HRW is new and making some headway against SWW. HRS is also making some headway against SWS (winter and spring varieties are considered the same class of White Wheat). Our area is problematical in getting acceptable protein level in  HRS.

 

I accept that Chicago is sometimes influenced by HRW.  But I haven't seen that attributed to HRS in Canada. Minneapolis should be if there is protein competition.

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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

No palouser.. You can go on agweb right now and there's an article that talks about the Canadian hrs taking down Chicago wheat.

Also hrw acres declined in my area due to srw. The same thing has been happening slowly in the states. It's a slow leak you don't notice til the tank is empty.

You have to make protein to get ahead in hrw. If you don't, you get mad and grow srw. That's generally what happens here
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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

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Senior Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

It appears these are Canadian conversations and they agree with previous information I've posted that the east/west shipping corridors in Canada are performing poorly this year with LONG ship waits in Vancouver and of course winter tends to end shipping to the east.

 

The Canadian praries are not going to start growing SRW, not by a long shot. Winter wheat of any kind is problematical in the north. Which is why they grow spring varieties. Winter wheat is associated with higher yields and those afreas that can grow it have ad will. Those areas growing spring wheat do it for specific reasons. SRW areas could have grown HRW for a higher price but the simple fact in many of the areas SRW is grown it is because conditions for meeting the protein standaerd for a standard price usually don't occur.

 

The fact that Canada has both a huge crop and transport issues with the railroads creates a real problems for those farmers who haven't made prior sales now that the transport system is backed up. It is being upgraded, but it is poor timing none the less. Buyers around the world resist buying wheat for milling of vaireities they aren't familiar with unless they have absolute assurance they can maintain uniform and consistent quality. All I can say is Canadian feeders know how to use feed wheat and at those prices they certainly will.

 

The Canadian situation will pass. I would like to have known exactly where some of the Canadian farmers were shipping from to understand their truck/rail costs were because they have some wheat grown in places that are way the hell and gone - and they will certainly suffer.

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