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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

It amazes me that it takes a gov report before the market "knows" there was a huge crop in canada. Nobody knew.. then all of a sudden the crop is worth a buck less. Maybe some firms knew but most I know of were unaware.
Of course like they say "You don't want to pay the cost of the information you need"








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Senior Contributor

Re: soft red wheat

SRW is one tough market. Even bears I know are long out of their shorts.’

Rest of the world grew a good cop and the US crop had above trend yields and I hink a record crop. Balance sheet doesn’t show much increase in ES but we for one disagree and expect domestic use (feed use) to bee lower than projected and exports as well.

 

How low will she go? A guess, year from now we will be in the 4s. The posts describing thee regional dislocations and wide variance in basis is too true. Unfortunately many producers get stuck with very high basis. CFTC/CME was trying to get the specs changed to reduce that risk, not sure how they made out.

 

Thing can’t even rally for 2 days in a row for 2 months!

Geezz

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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

Yep I know. I did cut back on acres. Thinking about removing the crop from my rotation. Tired of dealing with the residue and cant seem t o market the dang stuff
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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

I wouldn't remove it. You gain about 10% more beans and corn for two years after wheat. 230/mt w 90 bpa yield is v competitive to corn/bean. More than just wht you get paid for 1 year.

Your suffering w residue? Notilling after wheat? Have to remove ALL stubble and straw in no till, or you get a huge yield penalty in the more northern areas.

Honestly after 2014, I probably won't grow more Hrww than I have contracted for 2015. Srw is slightly ahead in 2015 pricin locally. It's amazing: 2014 Hrww 220 flat at end user. Srww 229 elevator. 229+ protein for 2014 Hrww. What's going on? Anyways, good thing I priced!
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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

I know good yield bump here also especiallly if we get a good red clover seeding. Probably just mad at myself for poor marketing.
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Senior Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

We have a drier climate here but I run over all WW stubble (usually 85-100 bu) with a Sunflower disk ripper with the last rank of disks adjusted to level the field fairly well. In the spring, when the surface is fairly dry (preferably) I use a super harrow to level and break up the straw further, usually make one light pass with a cultivator and seed small grains. If the surface is still dry I'll run over it another time with the super harrow at high speed to firm up the seed bed and further distribute and break up straw. Don't have any problem seeding spring wheat or a legume.

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Advisor

Re: soft red wheat

Just saw the close looks like srw might still have a heartbeat off the lows anyway
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