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Senior Contributor

some cracks in the chinese miracle?

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9 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: some cracks in the chinese miracle?

There's been several analysts calling Chinese growth stagnet at best.  They look at electricity gains for the strength of their economy because it seems to be the first sign of progress or problems.  The past few months, the electricity gains have been extremely modest suggesting there's little if any growth occuring in China.  This really shouldn't come as any surprise given the fact that China dumps cheap made and cheap goods on the European and American consumers.  Considering Europe is in a recession and the U.S. is sure to follow, this shouldn't come as a surprise China's economy is stagnant at best.  

 

What people have to remember about China is the fact that they don't give a rat's butt whether their people starve or not.  If China quit buying our soybeans, where would the price be?  They're the only game in town!

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Senior Advisor

Re: some cracks in the chinese miracle?

The last report I saw (last week) was China was slowing from 9.2% growth to 8.9% growth. That's stagnation we could only hope for. Even half that would have some cheering in the streets.

 

The idea that China doesn't care about their people ???? Where do you get this fairy dust ???? Within the last 5 years the rural segment, falling behind in standard of living, was the official #1 concern for the domestic front in the People's Congress annual meeting (which basically rubbver stamps the leadership) and $$$$ Billions were used to stimulate the rural areas. True, they also know that all revolutions in China have come from the rural areas. But that is the best the reptilian hearts of some politicians would do - here or there.

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Senior Advisor

And China will NOT ....

..... stop buying our soybeans. You can take THAT to the bank.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: And China will NOT ....

They don't have to stop.   If their imports go from 58MM tonnes to 56 the change will be reflected in dollars lower soybean prices.

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Senior Advisor

Re: And China will NOT ....

However, they are straining to keep internal prices down and using reserves to do it. Food inflation is a problem for them and they control it with plentiful supply.  As long as they can get soybeans they will pay the piper. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: some cracks in the chinese miracle?

You're only reading reports that the Chinese gov't releases or the numbers they give.  Insiders claim the most accurate way to track Chinese growth is via their electricity gains.  If they see big electricity gains, then they're seeing big growth.  If they see low to no electricity gains, their economy isn't growing.  Several analysts are seeing them to the tune of 0-2 percent growth right now.  Most people forget how they stimulated their economy back in 2009.  They were giving away free televisions and appliances.  In most cases, they were giving these free appliances to those who didn't even have electricity.  The reasoning was so they could get them off the shelf to make more thus saying they were seeing growth. 

 

Have you ever been to China?  I have been to China.  I have seen first hand how they treat their people.  Our tour bus was going down the street when a guy probably in his early 20's came up knocking on the window of the bus.  He was naked, and had severe deformities.  This is how China treats their people.  China's human rights record is atrocious.  They had to shut down most of their manufacturing facilities when the Olympics was going on just so the rest of the world didn't get a glimpse of the smog and pollution.   

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Senior Advisor

Re: some cracks in the chinese miracle?

I've not been to China. I've been to India and elsewhere. But I HAVE paid close attention to their buying habits and reserve strategies.

 

They will not stop buying beans.

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Senior Contributor

Re: some cracks in the chinese miracle?

pal, their stock market is down 30%. would you at least admit  that the model you admire is having some problems? the rest of the globe is struggling to varying degrees, as an export platform they should be slowing as well. ps. i hope they do hold 50% of the worlds corn carryover, otherwise the math falls apart. not trying to be a smartass, just asking.

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Senior Advisor

Re: some cracks in the chinese miracle?

Has nothing to do with admiration but, there is value in understanding their strengths and weaknesses. China has MANY HUGE problems. But the transformation is stunning. We all know that. And yet, they have a long ways to go to get to where they want to go.

 

A centralized authority (nondemocratic) has strengths and weaknesses in terms of economic growth. As does Singapore, a centrally controlled city state widely admired for its transformation. Taiwan was the same and so was S Korea. Check the record on when they became functioning democracies. Might surprise you. Both became economic powerhouses under authoritarian rule. That's the story of what we used to call the 'Asian Tigers'.

 

China approaches 1/3 the global reserves in some grains at times though they have struggled to maintain those levels. But, they are keeping their powder dry. There is nothing going on now they haven't thought over years ago in the world of grain. When reserves faltered for wheat they simply poured money into subsidies and infrastructure until production rebounded. 

 

China produces 4 times the food the U.S does (and no, we aren't second either). They have huge reserves. They also have a huge population. They'll be OK for now as far as i can see. 

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