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Veteran Advisor

something ain't right

had time Sunday to dig thru some data, do some reading, etc.  This hot, dry weather is getting to me.


frankly, commodities should be quite a bit higher.....but "the market" just can't understand that....they are not worried.

Again, on market to market, it was mentioned we have huge supplies and there is a huge crop coming on........oh really.

much of the production area in the united states had some sort of a problem or another, and in some, such as the

Dakota's, Nebraska, ks, mo, ok, tx........all are 'worse than better"......but Chicago claims doesn't matter.......the fact is,

yes it does.


I've noted the jump of cattle on feed......some sources say it's just because of the expansion of the herd........yet, what

i'm hearing.........its due to dry weather.......and from what i'm seeing and hearing, that number is going to climb.


on the wheat......has the final acres come out for the "primary" states ?  I hear a lot of big stories how stuff yielded, but

it was suspect that harvest acres would be down.


of note, only one elevator dumped wheat on the ground this year locally......and it has already been picked up........

to me, that tells me something.


the question is, why is Chicago so scared to bid up on products, and allow commodities to go up.


we hear everywhere that we have prices go up every year on everything......its a given almost.......but here

in the commodities, no that's not the rule....remember in economics class, when input costs go up, the final

product is marked up accordingly.......not here.....while input cost might be stable, the number of bu down, so

cost per bu is higher......but the market does not want to hear that or care.....they are just out to do their thing.


I was shocked that some of the market people are saying that these are good prices now !!!!


something is just plain wrong.

16 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: something ain't right

Farmers are squeezed right now, like we have in the past and like we will in the future.  The buyers have the "just in time inventory'  as long as USDA can keep the corn carryover north of 2 billion, just buying hand to mouth is pretty low risk.  Funny, used to be that 2 billion bushel carryover would`ve seemed "tight".  Perhaps we would`ve been better off to`ve not tasted the glorious years, we bought stuff that we`re making payments on with $3 corn, that`s now broken that we can`t afford to fix.   But if not for that, shoot just adjust the input spending to match the grain price, if they pay $2.50 for corn, then buy seed and fertilize for "$2.50 corn".

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: something ain't right

problem with that BA is you will get almost no inputs for $2.50 corn.........unless you go open poll corn with is $80 to $90 a bag


yes, the market is wrong........the idea of the just in time management does not work sometimes.......they have proven it in the

manufacturing sector.....having to shut down a whole factory with 100s of workers for a day or two for a semi load of parts can



oh now our friend basis has come back.........basis is now $1.00 on wheat......last year they said they could not get rid of it, they

pointed to the piles on the, no piles, and the same basis........


the thing that really gets you, it's the coop doing it, your supposed to OWN it, yet they are the biggest scalpers.


I guess i'm going to have to start to haul stuff down to SW..........funny, they tell me the market is to the east, we are a couple hundred

miles east of him, but he has better prices being further away !!


i'm getting tired


0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: something ain't right

I`ve heard that one rail line can have better rates and goes to a better market than one that might be closer, so this movement of grain can defy logic sometimes.   With corn anyway if a elevator has a deal with a feedmill, they can blow the other bids out of the water.  Now I don`t know where you take your wheat, but if it`s a truck house, they can beat you up on the basis and that`s something that can`t be helped on their side either.


But yeah, if it comes to raising open-pollenated corn and half rates of starter fertilizer, that is something that we all might come down to.  Maybe the expansion and prices we`ve seen aren`t sustainable.   




But see that in the green?   That is the land in the entire world that can really be farmed, so we are really blessed in the scheme of things.  

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: something ain't right

No shades of green in Brazil??

Where the heck are those 100+ million acres??

Veteran Advisor

Re: something ain't right

quiet cat !!!


your not supposed to ask such questions !!


don't you know the guru's know it all


just like a person SF just quoted, rains over the weekend in Kansas...........HA  HA  HA


keep telling the same lie long enough, and either your customers or yourself will believe it.



0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: something ain't right

When the funds and commercials own most of the grain then you can expect a rally.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: something ain't right

hazard to guess when, so we can "position" ourselves ?

0 Kudos

Assume the Position

that would be bent over with your head between you legs, and holding firmly to something so you don't tip over when they ram it home.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Assume the Position

guess I made a poor choice of word when I said "position".........Smiley Surprised