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Veteran Advisor

something to chew on

been reading some funny things.......or what to me appears to be funny.....or odd.........

 

report that brazil is thinking of doing away with import tariff on wheat....that's a good piece of news for the wheat market......

 

also, got a "tweet".....that cme corn is really SHORT......just remember when everyone runs to one side of the boat, the

boat might tip over......but then again......the trend is your friend.........too many "rules of thumb"..........

 

a couple of good stories on agrimoney......first, we are seeing the grain stock piles reducing......world wide...but a rather

odd closing, while world stocks are down, the production countries, do not.......still seems bulls to me tho

 

www.agrimoney.com/news/world-corn-stocks-cut-to-four-year-low-thanks-to-china-ethanol-drive-41615

 

now, for the puzzle.......we are seeing big open interests, most are short........so what's this mean ?

is it signaling a "change".......or are we "going down for the last time".

 

www.agrimoney.com/news/am-markets-why-the-huge-open-interest-in-grain-futures-41612

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: something to chew on

Interesting comments.

 

There is a lot of data available.  We're awash in data.  But data is not necessarily accurate and is certainly not information.  Information is data that has been analyzed and processed so it can be use or applied.  Which information is correct?  When it is wrong, and if we know that, what do we do about it?

 

Producers are not like traders.  Traders don't care if the market is up or down so long as it moves - traders live on volatility.  Processors pretty much live on certainty.  Thy'll pay a little more just to be sure they get the inputs they depend on.

 

But farmers are in a commodity business.  On the average, everyone breaks even.  But you can't make a living breaking even.  So how do we use information to claw ourselves above our fellow farmer?  

 

China is using a lot of corn for ethanol.  I thought they were burning through their old stocks that were so bad they couldn't even feed them.  If that is true, how does that affect world stocks.  Maybe not much, because their bad corn is almost like a different product.

 

With the stock market going higher, it is hard to say if investors are working the commodity markets or not.  It would seem to me that the big firms who pay people a lot of money to gather information from all over the world have to be respected.  Or at least feared.

 

Pygmies do kill elephants.  But when the elephants stampede it is good to be over a big hill or up a big tree.  

 

Me?  I'm up a tree.  Smiley Happy

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