cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 

soybean market ???

Ok, i'm not getting it. Why aren't soys $17, here. Soybean and soy oil sales are WAY ahead of last year's good pace.( i just read yesterday the totals, but don't have them to support my query) And it's nov. 30th. I'm aware that SA already has a great crop, or so i'm told, that can be imported into the united states and everywhere else. But... it's just not logistically feasible for anyone to ship soybeans from SA to Fairmont Mn or eagle grove iowa, is it? My best sale yet to be delivered is $16.60 and waiting to sell more at that level. Remind me again what it was that i didn't like about $16 soybeans???

0 Kudos
18 Replies
ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: soybean market ???

Remeber ida -- beans are only worth what somebody is willing to pay . Even with all the useage -- we still have plenty of beans --as of now , will see how that plays out in March , Trade is looking at the ( record ) crop down South and low and behold they will save the day .

0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: soybean market ???

Well......its all in perspective.......

First off........soya had an 18 in front of them not too long ago.........second......this time last year they briefly had an 11 in front of them.........third......we don't know what the final tally is on NA crop, IMO its shorter than the paper says, but because we now harvest two huge soya crops a year in this world.......it takes a bigger scare......

IMO soya have some room to run.......but it will take some time and basis might do the lifting.......
0 Kudos

Re: soybean market ???

Markets go up and they go down. 

0 Kudos
Silverwheaton
Senior Contributor

Re: soybean market ???

Brilliant!

0 Kudos
jeremey.frost
Frequent Contributor

Re: soybean market ???

because everyone thought beans where going to the moon..........everyone was bullish and long...........no one left to buy.........and then technical's changed............along with crop size...........we are no longer having to ration nearly the demand we did at one time............

 

the other thing that has changed is China is now buying the soy oil and bean meal............their crush margins are not postive from what i hear

 

i think potential for beans to scream higher is still there...........but the market has showed us that we need to have money flow on the right side................and until money starts coming back into the markets we really have no chance no matter our fundamentals to drive beans up anywhere near the old highs.............now if money decides to play..........and demand stays as solid there is plenty of potential...........the problem is money seems to only want to play when we have a headline story.............next possible would be weather in South America...........which isn't a story right now...........but keep in mind it was about the middle of Dec last year when it turned hot and dry and gave beans life..................

 

other possible headline story would be South America logistics..........or Jan USDA report

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: soybean market ???

Who has beans?

 

My understanding is only the US and Argentina?

 

Brazil over sold a short crop and is going to import some out of their southern neighbors. How much do they have in excess after their shortened crops. Is the pipeline full enough to last till their harvest or is there a squeeze play for 45 days on the horizon? If there is don't the end users need to buy/source those supplies before their augers run dry? Takes a little while between purchase and the time you need them in to proscess. If the pipeline is as close to that sucking sound as some seem to think I only see a max of 40 days before someone has to "blink".  

0 Kudos
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Of course, you also have to take into account that since...

Of course, you also have to take into account that since Brazil is going to be importing beans,  all of their early harvested beans will be used domestically and not exported.  Much like the corn in the US was this past summer.

0 Kudos
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Of course, you also have to take into account that since...

2 things.

look at the calendar and remember what Palouser always says about the futures market being a lagging indicater, the die has been cast, the audience is already seated in the theater so when the fire breaks out, they won't all be able to exit. like said above,compare prices to same time last year.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: soybean market ???

Yip, comparing back, and assuming up til now beans are in a harvest market, you make a good point cx-1. If these export # are yet to lag into the market, we are not starting winter from too bad a position.
0 Kudos