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sw363535
Honored Advisor

soybeans Report question

 

What is residual---- I know it represents something and has been located in beans report for years, but I have reviewed several years between 1970 and 1990 and there is not a time I can remember or find where residual was a negative number.  Would it be residual if it were a negative number?  Maybe loss due to theft. ------------ Here is the lingo from the report.

 

"

U.S. soybean balance sheet changes for 2013/14 include reduced imports and increased exports. Imports are lowered 5 million bushels to 80 million based in part on revised import data for September – December 2013 from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1,640 million reflecting both revised export data for September through December 2013 from the Department of Commerce and inspections data for July 2014. These changes are offset with lower residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels.  "

 

Here is how that reads to me  --- The -95 mb of reduction in residual is "offset" by the reduction of 5 million in imports and raising 20mb in exports  Leaving ending stocks the same at 140 mb.

Where did the other 70 million bushel come from??????  I see it was conjured up last month.

 

Maybe what this statement means is the "residual" figure is the amount we have to fudge data to keep the usage data accurate and still maintain 140 mb of carry out. 

 

So, actual carry out is 140-94= 46mb. And usage is actually 3464mb--  If so the next sentince in the report is false.  It says----

 

 

With these changes, the 2013/14 soybean stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 4.2 percent, which if realized would be the lowest in more than 40 years. 

 

Without these changes which have no explanation other than the one printed, stocks to use ratio is projected at 1.33 percent,  which if realized would be the lowest ever  ------- ?????

 

Right Mike????

 

sw
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2 Replies
CitiFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Re: soybeans Report question

SW, it is a balancing figure and so we can look for them to change the 2013 Soybean yields in some future report to account for this.  It was a -1 million figure a couple year's ago but I do not remember this large of figure any other year in the last 15 years.

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Silverwheaton
Senior Contributor

Re: soybeans Report question

Here is a link to somebody that stuff religously and has been pretty good at it to!

 

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=494225&mid=4014642#M4014642

 

 

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