spring/summer weather outlook
Looking at news of the heavy rains in CA and it hit a mental bookmark that I'd made regarding the winter of '87-'88 when a previous long drought finally broke in a big way.
Looking around I'm not sure the analogs fit real well. The '88 MW drought had already started in late '87. Right now the north belt in particular is very wet.
The '87 El Nino had peaked a bit differently than this one.
Nothing cleart there. More than anything, PDO, sunspot cycle etc. line up differently.
I guess that unless something comes along to grab my attention I'm going with the paradigm that served me well last year and so far in SA. It is a hot, wet world and that argues against broad droughts for now.
I'm thinking the greater rally opportunity may come from a wet spring and concern over corn acres. I'm hoping for a lte winter low to get some courage calls on for that possiblity.
Re: spring/summer weather outlook
That's opinion and as the saying goes, strategy trumps it.
I think tennish is a pretty good price for new crop soys.
For corn I'm looking for a late winter low in price and vol to buy some calls with the hope of legging into a synthetic short later.