spring wheat

[modal]

that market has got me a little confused, one guy I work with tell me to sell out yet another tells me to sit on it till after the first of the year, got about 29k unpriced, any ideas? thanks.

[Palouser]

You need to learn the market. Your friends aren't going to be much help. They don't have anything at stake and may know less than you. How many answers can you get. What are the top 3 producing countries of wheat? What are the global carry outs or stocks/use ratios predictions for this marketing year? What are the trends over the last 10 years. Who are the top 3 importers? I could go on, but if you don't have a clue about the countries and trends you don't know your industry. You can learn this stuff fairly easily and in a relatively short time - and find out where some of the sources of info are. If cash flow and other commitments aren't a big issue (plan for those and know when they are due) then I recommend dividing your crop into a number of parts and market them each month, two months - or whatever intervals make sense to you. It's a matter of averaging income. But as a result you'll start using your acquired knowledge and at some point you can slow down and speed up sales that correspond to market moves. You may not make a killing but it will help you avoid a single sale mistake.

[Artifice]

 point, wheat is grown all over teh world, thus a string of bad weather in a fw at a time is the outlier.

learn the MKT is right, supply excess spec demand and harvest them as well.

[Palouser]

Pritch, your point is a good one. Specifically, all trends can be said to start with the outlier. Some develop, some don't. It is seeing a trend change begin and continue, while others are looking back, where the best money is made. 2008 was forecast. Sticking with the Russian drought paid big. And so on. You discounted the trends. I didn't. Your prescription for action is different than mine with the same information. Knowing the difference between exuberance (positive or negative) and physical commodity reality is essential. But, a trader's mindset and SOP is different than a producer's.