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hardnox604008
Advisor

still a bear, I guess

Looking at grains alone I do see reasons for looking for a bottom here- oversold, VRBuck's time price calc (thanks), China on the fundamental side.

 

But I guess I'm sticking with that one that brung me- the overall financial trend- and I really, really didn't like the stock market action of the last couple of days- huge upside breadth on modest volume Thursday, extremely light volume with a quick short squeeze at the end yesterday.

 

Concern about equities, credit spreads etc. needs to be reconciled with a possible top, near term in the dollar. Not sure how that will play out- these sorts of market interrealationships don't stay in place forever but the immediate future for that is very unclear.

 

I guess it is a good thing I don't have to do anything, 100% sold '09, 100% covered in one fashio or another for '10, not enough price to get excited about starting '11.

 

fwiw, h

 

 

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5 Replies
rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: still a bear, I guess

           Looks alot like 03 to me.   ( Record Exports ended up driving most everything by end of 03 ) 

           I figure mostly 25% net cash UPs on about every agri commodity now thru year end.

           Things like cattle though, say a 50% UP. 

           The foods reduction affect of the oil spill will come into play soon now. 

           Soo nox, we'll pray for ya ( and drink a couple Shiner Bocks for ya too). 

           We'll Expect to find You over here on the "flip side" so to speak in a couple weeks too.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: still a bear, I guess

rightone, dont know if the consumer will pay for 130.00 fat cattle. but ive been wrong before. looks like temporary bottoms to me. still big hat, no cattle. d7

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: still a bear, I guess

            Meat Exports last quarter are up 30 to over 40% in EVERY category ( Beef especially ) as comped to 09.

            The usa consumer perhaps does not have much choice on pricing of the high end products.

           Grind beef demand IS thru the roof . 

           It appears THAT is what the usa consumer prefers now. 

           Cull cows here next week will be $67 and we'll be say $80 + cwt on those by mid July.

            Feeder cattle here gettin real reasonable now ( Finally ), couple dry areas movin em out here.    

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: still a bear, I guess

Rightone I saw a simmi cow bring 71.50$ last week.  I got 63.5$ for one cow.

I have this feeling this is the week of the years lows in all agri products.  Not willing to bet on it but sure leaning that way. JR

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: still a bear, I guess

           Same feeling here.  

            btw looks like we've put in long term "marker " lows so we probably will never even be close to current levels again. 

           Whole deal also appears to be in Cash/Physical expansion mode too.  

           Especially in areas like the Pac Basin. 

           Perhaps some pretty well founded fears out there that contracting thru a paper game is fine...IF the game still exists when one needs their product.

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