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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

sunspot count

wolfjmms.png (1000×600) (sidc.be)

Nothing to get excited about, drought wise.

'23-'24 bears watching, cyclically speaking. But you shouldn't have to anticipate- should see a sustained spike in advance.

This cycle remains weak- even weaker than the last weak one.

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25 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: sunspot count

Yes, as usual, the masses are being mislead, the climate in changing, and maybe cooling due to the sun taking a vacation. Only way cause a global famine is cooling btw, not warming....we will see, but a continued cooling trend would surprise the "models" :-)

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: sunspot count

Sunspot minima cyles appear to be fairly random- there are theories but I don't think anybody really knows why they pop up from time to time. They are associated with cooling global temperatures and advancing glaciers, Arctic ice etc. They can last 50-100 years.

I don't know what the official call is as far as when we entered a minimum period but might be 15 years in. And I'm not 100% certain when temps are supposed to start to cool but so far we're hitting records for global mean temperature most years. One might suspect there are other factors interacting.

A religious man might even find the benevolent work of Providence in this, but who am I to say?

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: sunspot count

The most recent Dalton Minimum in the early 19th Century only lasted about 40 years. We really don't want to come out of this one with CO2 concentrations of 500ppm or something crazy. Although probably highly aspirational that we'll be very far back under 400 by 2050.

 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: sunspot count

We do know the higher mean temperatures increase the atmospheric water load.

Of course in 2012 we had a pretty strong drought on the front side of the sunspot peak. Doesn’t really matter if there’s a blocking pattern and the jet stream gets locked into the north over a high pressure ridge.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: sunspot count

'88 and '12 were major hits, right on the front of the peak.

'76 and '02 were more glancing blows- confined mostly to the Plains and far WCB.

If susnspots are spiking into '23 or '24 I don't know that it ought to change marketing plans much other than the tools employed. To me it would definitely suggest using options- either a put strategy or courage calls over sales.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: sunspot count

Although George Soros’ Jewish Space Lasers may play some as yet unknown but no doubt nefarious role.

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rawhide
Advisor

Re: sunspot count

If you had an electric car there would be no problem.......or at least that's what the dumb bich said

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: sunspot count

I used to subscribe to Larry Akker who was a Sunspot guru and he forecasted that most of the world was headed towards a Ice Age that would change society and food production....starting...well now in the 2020s.  When or if that would gain traction, you sure wouldn`t want to "$7 corn and $14 beans" contracted 2 or 3 years out.  Larry passed away about 5 years ago.  Poster "Shaggy" used to tease me that I subscribed to him  Smiley Happy

Here`s the real life problem EV`s have, that no one wants to face with their beer googles on this near to closing time.  You can`t store much megajoules of power to kilograms of weight compared to good ol 87 unleaded.  

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: sunspot count

Not even suggesting that’s much in play at the moment- yeah, we could have a shortbcrop but history aligns to say that’s a bad thing to bet the farm on.

Anyway, to the point since you want to press it.

The guru says the stupid masses believe the earth is warming.

 

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