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hardnox
Advisor

sunspots etc.

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FSoilmst_Monito...

 

Gulf is warm and has produced good soil moisture across almost all of the belt. A high pressure system forecast to move into the central US which should permit rapid planting progress. If there's going to be  a planting scare it is likely to only be later in the month if some region looks like it will have a lot of PP. Yet to be seen.

 

Dry patch in the SE is shrinking as far as any indicator of near future droughts

 

http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

 

Sunspot activity remains very light- declining irregularly since 1990ish peak with a weak peak in 2014. The 1988, 2012 and mid-70s droughts occurred on the upswing of peaks. 2000 did not produce a major drought across the entire belt.

 

Gulf/global temperatures are hot but like last year, I'll guess that we're more likely to see warm/wet conditions. The guess is only useful to the degree that I don't think there's a reason to believe that there's an above normal chance for sharply reduced yields and that runs about 1 in 10. So I'll sell rallies if offered but as noted, the short posture of funds make a good bounce possible if a story emerges and it would probably carry

farther than otherwise justified.

 

We're getting on to near 2 decades of low sunspot activity but the Maunder Minimum ran 75 years or so, (Dalton of early 19th Century Little Ice

Age) about 50.

 

Weak el nino fading at the moment.

 

Warm and wet? Timing of the heat and raisn would dictate outcome, but probably not a Big One.

 

BTW, the general consensus here that the warm temps, particularly at night, were not likely to produce a record or even trend crop did not come to pass.

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10 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: suspots etc.

Key factor that I failed to mention is that warm global temperatures have increased atmospheric moisture- around 11% from the long term average by some accounts.

 

A major reason why I'm not feeling droughty.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: suspots etc.

Ground temps haven't gotten that news
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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: suspots etc.

Our forecast is showing an inch of rain Tues/we'd,
So would be wed/Thurs in corn belt. Don't know
If you can plant and then throw another inch on
Top ? It could be getting kind of late
For some
Then the second shoe
If we get the corn in. With all the rain, some of
The N has been leached. No time to fert again
Not to mention additional costs, which producers
Might not want to spend.
Then with replant you may not be able to
Get the racehorse varities you had or wanted, which
Could translate to lower yeilds
Then lastly, good odds that the crop will not
Root down....so if we get dry it could start to
Hurt, or a wind event, could be bad.

So we're not made yet, and some things to
Consider, but may take some time to impact market.
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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: suspots etc.

 
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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Sunspots?

Nox, did you mean sunspots?  I think you can go into options and edit the subject line of your message if you want to.

 

HF radio traffic for us amateur radio operators is miserable.  Some bands virtually worthless.

 

The key question to me is how does one market this information?  On one hand there is mention of non record crops but on the other one gets the idea of no bust.  If that's the case, start selling at these prices?  Or hope for a rally?  Does the sunspot issue lead one to expect steady to lower prices this fall?  Then, from what level?

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Sunspots?

What I'm saying is that in my opinion sunspots, SOI, soil moisture all indicate a below average case for a sharply below average yield, which is already a low probability event.

 

If anything Too Wet might be the threat but the extended forecasts look timely. We may get to the end of May with some region facing possible PP but that remains to be seen.

 

1993 excepted, too much rain after planting rarely cuts the crop sharply- 20" in June 2015 in parts of the ECB had most believing that we couldn't do trend, but we did.

 

But I still think that given the short fund posture there's a fair chance for a decent scare that can produce a bigger move up than otherwise justified.

 

I don't know everybody's circumstances but am inclined to view the current handwringing over cold temps and slightly slow progress as a matter of farmers magnifying each others' anxieties.

 

Last years Wettest Drought on Record kind of held my feet to the fire as I sold into it but it turned out to be the right thing.

 

Then consensus was that warm temps eliminated the possibility of trend yields even if moisture was mostly abundant. Might have kept corn from hitting 180 but there's nothing beans love more than a hot wet August and we blew thee record away.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Sunspots?

I`d like to think there`s a alchemist formula for predicting yields and weather, maybe there is.  But universities say low sunspots = lower yields, if there is a correlation, 8% below trend in Illinois corn during low sunspot.  You`d think the other way around that high Sun energy = heat & drought and low yields. 

 

http://wagrains.org/sunspots-do-they-influence-yield/ 

 

Or as Ackerman put it: “If I could predict crop yields on the basis of sunspot activity, I’d be making money on the commodities market.”

And by the way, not that it apparently matters, but the sun is in a declining sunspot cycle, expected to reach its lowest point around 2020.  

 

 

This spring is funny, I wasn`t at all hopeful, all that rain and cold, however we missed the +2" rains and instead got .5" , the tile had been quietly working and now if you root through with a digger, the next day you`re seriously planting in the dust.  It`s kind of a reminder how quickly things can change, don`t want to jinx it as we`re always 48hrs away from a flood and 48 days away from a drought that amounts to anything, it can change. 

 

It`s actually kind of a nice spring, the crazies that are always seeing who can get the most planted before the crop insurance date didn`t get bailed out with nice weather and are on the starting blocks with everyone else this year  Smiley Happy    aw too bad, did I say that out loud?     But yeah get that corn planted by May 10 and the beans a week after in good conditions (no sudden death issues later)  and we are in good shape.

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sunspots?

I agree that a short-covering rally might be something to sell.

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bruce MN
Advisor

Re: Sunspots?

Simply observing these conversations it seems to me that all of the discussions seem to be being held based on instincts developed over time by producers who have farmed the same basic acreages for a good number of years and have developed a natural "feel" for conditions.

 

What seems to be missing is the very real affect of the absolutely spectacular level of expansion of highly efficient and very professionally installed drainage that has gone down over the boom years (Obama years for you BA, just to be a p***k about it).  

 

We all know what happened on the piece of ground we work, or used to work, but don't take into account what was done on that chunk down the road or over on the other side of the county that we always thought of as a wet spot.

 

It's more cumulative than  falls into the mindset.