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Senior Contributor

tariffs

I hate to compare the tariffs to the russian grain embargo of 1979 but the end result will be the same in that ag will take years even decades to recover.
Im not a person that knows any of the intricasies of the trade war and why its happening but it seems Ag suffers the most each time!
If we are upset over how they manipulate currency then we should do that too!
No one will win this but Ag will be a big loser again. Its easier to hurt a few farmers than to quit importing their stuff. Besides if commodities get cheap then consumers will be better off! At least thats what the think tanks believe.
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11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: tariffs

good comment I agree

 

The blame game goes on for years.

Like other government reports the actual effect can be measured in hours, but the blame can go on for years.

I guarantee the pipe fitting I bought was on the shelf here long before the tariff on steel.  Profiteering lasts a long time also.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: tariffs

Now, let's be fair and dispense with the hand-wringing.  The embargo was enacted in January 1980, and while there was a sharp initial selloff it actually only took prices back to where they had been in January 1979, and was at the tail end of a long tumble from summer 1979.  And then a weather market later in 1980 took them far higher again.   And oh yeah, Nov 18 beans are still 60 cents higher today than they were ten weeks ago...

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: tariffs

clayseia

you are showing a corn graph.....i grow wheat. the russians were woefully poir at growing anything but the 70's boom in ag started with the great russian wheat deal in 1972. 

corn may have recovered but wheat didnt. prices may have recovered because of the drought in 1980 which brought prices up but alas not much to sell.

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Honored Advisor

Re: tariffs

Don't be afraid to raise/wave the BS flag on your pipe fitting.

 

First the tariff is figured by the ton.

 

Second weigh the fitting.

 

Third divide that into 2000# 

 

If the price of steel would double it'd made only pennies of a difference.

 

Absolutely the same as the amount of wheat in a loaf of bread, or the corn in a box of corn flakes.

 

Just greed and gouging somewhere in the supply chain, or too long

 

"http://www.animateit.net/data/media/august2009/bsflag.gif

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Frequent Contributor

Re: tariffs

How, exactly, did wheat not recover as well?  Granted, there was a prolonged slump in the spring 1980 wheat market but it rebounded both immediately after the embargo and again late in the year.

 

Note that I am not saying there was not a great deal of pain in these times, just that the embargo gets blamed in peoples' memories but there was a lot more than the embargo going on in those markets.

 

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: tariffs

Some folks bringing up the Nixon and Carter embargoes down at Forum.

 

As far as Carter goes, with neither defense or blame of him, appointing Volker was a far bigger deal, and Reagan re-appointed him.

 

I do, and did at the time, think that the inflation spiral needed to end. Whether the unprecedented use of extremely high interests rates was the best way or not, it is generally deemed to have been a success and kicked off a pretty decent couple of decades. Some folks got splatted against the windshield, though.

 

There's a passage in William Greider's Secrets of the Temple where the final decision is being made to use rate targeting and one of the regional governors who was in dissent says "and thus begins the slaughter of the innocents."

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Advisor

Re: tariffs

Quoted from Keynes by memory, near verbatim

 

"practical men who consider themselves immune from intellectual matters are actually the slaves of the scribblings of some defunct economist"

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Advisor

Re: tariffs

One of my concerns regarding the current trade fracas is the economist Navarro, who is neither defunct or a very good one.

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Advisor

Re: tariffs

Larry Kudlow isn't an economist but he played one on TV.

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