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Veteran Contributor

testing & some grain thoughts

anyone on this board have a good start on a crop this spring?

 

reading around the net, seems to be a lot of problems the market is neglecting for the time being? with beans, DDGs & now corn moving to the country of the Rising Sun at swift paces, ethanol production running record month after record month, large oil spill in the gulf??????............a timely wx problem this season may send the grains back up to higher ranges, agree or?

 

the historically high basis of old crop corn levels across the country thus far this year has meaning, Chicago has yet to see the value.

 

should have added.................corn is all in here and up, some too much of late as we had 3+ inches last Sunday-Monday and 1+ the Thur. before. post corn spraying is going to get ugly if we get the forecasted moisture on Sat & Sun? some getting to big for ATZ over the top, and many add it for weed control. SRW is really poor and the smallest acreage in decades. early beans, some planted......with the rain in the past 10 days and cool temps that followed, glad mine are still in the bag. too busy with sidedress & post spraying to get going on beans. trying the spraying gig this morning, having to go lite and pick places.

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31 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

Others see near perfect start to growing season compositely, and project ES/use at high levels.

 

How much corn is going to China vs. stks levels? Enough to keep basis from but

how much effect on ES/Use especially for2011.

 

Is 385 CZ rich or lean?

 

Art

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Veteran Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

then that "composite" must be a small area? cause parts of Ne, Ks, Ia, Mn, Wi, Mi, Mo, Ar, Il, In, Oh, Nd, Sd, Ky, Tn, Tx, Ms, La are all seeing slow growth, replanting or PP on the horizon. May is over half gone already.

 

old crop basis levels have been on the front burner since before the China news was poo poo'd by most major market watchers some months ago now. i could show you an email from a friend that visited Asia a couple of months ago, and the USDA attche' told them China was buying US corn long before the USDA here announced the first sales. so your, mine or anyone's guess as to any USDA number is worth even less than the actual USDA number.

 

over the past year now, US has been exporting ethanol aboard......not just a domestic market anymore. with the gulf oil spill front page for Lord knows how long now........it's pretty much a given we will see the E mandate move to 15%, possibly 20% given the today's circumstances. Obama Admin has already done a 180 on off shore drilling. and Obama & the Demos will need as much support as possible come Nov, so they will look to what avenues they have a foot in the door of already.....ie Green Energy will garner their whole hearted support between now & then.

 

with Taylor's drought cycle 2 years overdo, and some talking a fast switch to La Nina possibly? not too mention already in the past few weeks models suggesting major ridging patterns over the Mid West.............

 

major support has been holding in corn and some are tempting a low was just made, others suggest looking at a 1980cz chart for historical purposes?

 

i'll take 385cz as being fantastically LEAN! lol

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

Opinions vary I guess.

Industry has accidents, the norm.  this a terrible one, but offshore drilling isn't going to come to an end. A couple of big offshore finds produce more BTUs that all of ethanol. Ethanol was created by the corn lobby but isn't particularly efficient.

My guess, China demand will be supplied, filled, and the market will follow by dropping as the dominant focus is on the coming crop.

A norm in the composite is imperfection, some areas super good and some not,  that is average. This yr has the crop off to a super start, above average.

 

Unsold weighs on the market, I see an early seasonal pattern underway, maybe we bottom in August.

 

Artiface

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Frequent Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

Its funny the market only seems to look west of chicago. Most of the boys in Iowa and Nebraska are off to a great start with above average emergence..... If the market looks East things are not so great. We just got a 2 inch rain this evening on top of saturated ground. Its still raining and Im a little afraid to see the fields in the morning. At this rate preventive planting will take effect on alot more acres than what most would expect. The Eastern cornbelt may end up being the Eastern soybean belt if the rain continues lol! Good luck to all

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Senior Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

    1993  doe's it ring a bell? This year is almost a carbon of 1993 since jan. What was the summer like in the midwest in that year?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

where is this "above average", "super start" occuring/located Robert?

 

ewwww, that dreaded "corn lobby" dreamth ethanol from corn up, the power they  weld in DC must be Sampson like? Henry Ford designed his first automoblie to run off corn ethanol, guess the "corn lobby" had their hands in it way back then?

 

1st 1/4 2010, the US exported 80+  million gallons of ethanol............."corn lobby" must have their hands around the necks of the Dutch, Canuks, Brazilians...etc also, huh?

 

did you hapen to notice how fast 50 then 80% of the corn crop was supposedly planted, but where are the emergence ratings in relationship to those respective platning dates?

 

"A couple of big offshore finds".........ah but do tell Roberto, how much of those alledged BTUs make it into the US marketplace????????

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

Where? Near everywhere, this crop is one of the earliest planted in history in fact "THE". Earliest ever.

 

The US doesn't export crude, we import about 75% of what we use,   gulf of Mexico crude is  consumed here, though much is refined

in the Caribbean.

 

I think ethanol production uses more energy units than it produces, subsidies make it possible. Opinions vary, I think it a terrible use of corn. "Renewable"  sounds good, but we have 100 yrs worth of Ngas, we should be using that!

 

No il meant, we just disagree.  art

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Veteran Contributor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

"Where? Near everywhere"...................boy, that's drilling down and really getting specific there Robert. that statement you just made pretty well sums up what i needed to know about your knowledge, but heck...let's continue,,,okay?

 

"in fact "THE". Earliest ever"...........that's an odd fact or some of that country club fuzzy math i've heard of there Rob? last plantings report i saw showed the crop is yet to be completely planted. 

 

since you seem to know a lot about all this, and i'll ask again.............. tell me what the emergence ratings are when compared to the ultra fast planting dates?

 

 

"The US doesn't export crude"??????................

 

take a guess who is # 20 of oil exporters in 2005

 

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_exp-energy-oil-exports

 

 

uh, here's a EIA/DOE 2008 report of Exports of Crude & Petro Products by destination.................

 

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_annual/psa_volume1/c...

 

 

and you say all Gulf of Mex crude is consumed here in the USA???????

 

 

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Advisor

Re: testing & some grain thoughts

Art what would Soros say about identifying new fundementals in the market.  What does cattlefeeder say about the changing fundementals in the market.

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