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Senior Advisor

the 164 or 14 challange revisited..........

wonder if the USDA will throw out 2012 too...........next year we should be at 170 trend..........

 

I am not sure anything short of a major bearish report this week can derail this weather rally.........only rain and lots of it.........

 

sad part is, its not a surprise, we have had issues all spring..........this just trumps it all..........

 

wonder how many went from 50% to 100% sold and 80% to short a weather market...........

 

I think someone mentioned this scenerio playing out about a month ago.........if I could just remember who..........

 

o well........be safe out there this week.........heat index well into the 100's............hell today was miserable, think I drank 2-3 gallons of water and was still thirsty............

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10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: the 164 or 14 challange revisited..........

Hey... a 14 billion challenge?   I read somewhere today of 11.8 billion...... That's a lot of lost bushels.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: the 164 or 14 challenge revisited..........

MT: I believe you are not the only bull in the pen here...

 

I'm thinking Jethro's and a rack of ribs instead of steak. Smiley Wink Remember I took the 140ish?

 

I also think $7ish on corn and $15 on beans hits all kind of resistance and demand destruction ... Not good in the long run. Might also cause politicians to do things that cause havoc and financial disaster.

 

The real problem is all the growers (not farmers) that listened to the idiot experts and presold at unprofitable levels crops not yet planted.

 

 I believe there will be some shake outs and farmers going to Wal-Mart greeters school.

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Senior Contributor

Re: the 164 or 14 challenge revisited..........

Hobby says:  "Might also cause politicians to do things that cause havoc and financial disaster."

Ya, that has never happened before.

 

I am going to put that quote up on the wall. It is a classic......

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Honored Advisor

Re: the 164 or 14 challange revisited..........

USDA has to get this trendline stuff out of their noggins.  Until Mothersanto starts splicing octopus genes into this corn to get 8 ears per stalk, trendlines have kind of leveled off.  In this day and age, we don`t need government bean counters.  This throwing figures out willy-nilly in March shoot, I can do that too "200 bushel national average, 100 million acres all will be harvested and 20 billion bushel crop with a carryover of 10 billion bushels and a projected price of 45¢ in 2013..there! Now gimme my $250,000 salary".

Senior Advisor

2005 Revisited

The more likely scenario for me locally is seeing plenty of rain hitting in some areas but not here.  Reminds me of 2005 when southern Illinois and SE Iowa were dry.  The rest of  the corn belt did OK, so we had locally poor yields but not a big price runup as the rest of the nation did well.

 

It's hard to tell around here.  Soem fields are doing very well and others not so well.  A set of good rians would make a world of difference.  In my opiinion, the bloom is off the rose but I don't know how badly yet.

 

There is room for many variations, depending on how much rain we get and when . 

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Honored Advisor

Re: the 164 or 14 challange revisited..........

If ever.
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Senior Advisor

Re: the 164 or 14 challenge revisited..........

Speaking of 'demand destruction' I understand dryness is forcing a lot of cattle into feedlots.

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Honored Advisor

Re: the 164 or 14 challenge revisited..........

The cattle have to eat something.....

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Contributor

Re: the 164 or 14 challenge revisited..........

But breeding stock  only eat it once in a feedlot

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