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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

the catch to the tour.........

they stay north..............lotta bad or chopped corn south of their tour line.........

 

so think about this.........if most of their yields are coming in close or under USDA number for August...........and its the good stuff.......

 

throw in the worst and you have well.........

 

WORSE THAN I THOUGHT.......................

 

looking at 10% lower than USDA August number..........starting to doubt my 9B floor..........but will hold for now.........

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8 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: the catch to the tour.........

WELL....who started the HALF a crop thang???? - still might not be to far off......KA+MO+ MN = averages ea other out. i might be edumacated, but i like doing gross/simple/common sense estimates.

 

it actually might be KA/MO/TN/KY cancelling out w/ MN/NB if IA comes in below 120

 

is Ka REALLY 93 & Mo 75 per usda??????

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tim7781
Frequent Contributor

Re: the catch to the tour.........

i dont think the state of Minnesota will end up much above average. Looks great but the heat did damage up here too.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

half a crop is...........

7.4B............guess we will see, but not sure we get that low.........

 

still holding at 9B..........

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: half a crop is...........

being purely technical:  just the 4 state totals in from profarmer, we sit @ 10.778 minus .244 = 10.534b...or pretty darn close to the  10.5 or below that Roggensack and floor was harping on to get corn above 9.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: half a crop is...........

still think it takes a 9B print of something before things go nuts.........if its 10B something they will still flounder a bit..........going single digit is a big deal..........

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farsider
Senior Contributor

Re: the catch to the tour.........

USDA has Mn at 155 vs 156 last year in the last report, that isn't what people were expecting earlier I'm sure. For me personally we have been lacking in moisture for awhile now and beans are taking a hit and we certainly aren't finishing out the corn like I hoped. A few miles can mean the difference between what could be a great crop and chopping an 80 with few ears, all how the rains came through.

@tim7781 wrote:

i dont think the state of Minnesota will end up much above average. Looks great but the heat did damage up here too.


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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: half a crop is...........

True, been a while since final below 10.

 

trade is starting to factor in fewer ac harvest - i would venture ed guess most agree we're down to that 82.5m ac level, incl mkt.

 

all she needs is a 120 final, w/ 86% harvested to get a 9.9.

 

i realize factor of increasing bpa per lowering ac, however, too.

 

also, remember BIG picture. w/ around 10.5b US, WORLD stocks/usage already BELOW 73/74. so the question becomes, why wouldn't price have a NATURAL tendency towards following that benchmark or surpassing it %-wise going into SA jan or so?

 

 

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Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: the catch to the tour.........

 My general area of central Mo is coming in at around 20-40 so 75 may be high for unless we are the worst of the state. In Cooper County.  Patrick

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