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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

the dollar is NOT higher

The $ is not higher

It is just not lower as fast as most other paper money.

All paper money fails over time.

All the talk of the $ being higher is just that, hot air.

One way of thinking of it would be if we were in a pod floating in mid air over an almost bottomless pit.

All the currencies of the world have been released over this abyiss.

As we are floating beside this spectacle and descending at their average rate some like the Zimbabwe currency have descended like a rock out of sight.

Many others are following at a high rate of speed such as Russia, and Ukraine's currency.

Others are from our point of view are seemingly rising. That is just an illusion, as we in our observation pod are descending at the average speed or rate of decline. They are still falling in value just not as fast as the average. Makes them appear to be rising from our vantage point, when in fact they are still falling.

The reality check is to see how many $ it takes to buy the same real hard goods year after year.
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31 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

The U.S. Dollar is at a 9-year high. You don't call that "higher"?

 

 

Mike

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

Twin reality. Yep the dollar is lower to the dollar in 1985. But its not 1985 either. So today its higher than it was a month ago and today's dollar buys more fuel than last months dollar did.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

but less tractor or truck to put the fuel in   ----------- buying power is distorted when we pick and choose what we compare it too.

 

Like washington continually changes the things it compares to to get the outcome it wants.

 

I remember the 90's when the administration included tech in the "cost of living index" because the costs were falling ---- wwwaaalllllllaaa -----no inflation.  

 

Compare the cost of production of a bushel of corn of nine years ago and today.  The value of the dollar is not higher now in that comparison.

 

The only thing learned in those dollar value statements is the bias of the guy with the pencil.

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rawhide
Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

sw, that last line is the quote of the year. Its gonna take a real good one to beat it.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

SW - it reminds me of the folks saying how cheap interest rates are - using twice as much borrowed  $$$ at half the rate  = what ?  

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

I had a nice reply all but entered and then the doctor came into the waiting room and said I could see my wife in recovery. It went away when the smart phone went asleep.

 

Jr,  compare apples to apples.

 

You know better than that statement, commodities are supply and demand priced usually, fuel was kept too high for the supply the last two years and now the corrective cycle has begun. Really not much different than milk in theory.

 

ME: NO it is not rising , it is just falling slower, creating separation.

 

Go to your Deere dealer and check on the price of a 200 hp tractor if th  $ was really stronger than anytime in the last 9 years the price would be cheaper than then. Fact of the matter is they have been on an upswing of ten to fifteen% each and every year.this year they are not going to go down let alone in an inverse with the falling less fast $.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

K-289,  Another very true statement.

 

It is so true ---- the auto industry has used that for years ---cheap interest rates advertised, with financing expense figured into the cost of the car.   and introduce   "cash" incentives................. just dropping the finance charges for the ones who fight for it.  Without a doubt Fed imposed cheap interest and lots of US govt. cash to borrow, as well as crop prices has contributed to land price increases.

And that is probably our best indicator of the $$ loss of value.  Did land prices fall with corn prices??

 

------------------------------

 

We continue to use decades old formula comparisons ...... few of which hold true in an economy that is so manipulated.

 

Interest rates for example ...... compared over time is impossible.  They are not a free market generated number these days so why do we still expect them to show us something.  It is hard to find an economic "indicator" that is not being federally controlled.  

Federal economy is doing well money flowing like a wound to a main artery.  But try and find private economy "indicators" that are not under government intervention......... it is hard to find it.  Even energy, we argue over pipelines and rails.......why, because we can't build refineriies?  Even in energy a government agency is in the middle of every decision.

 

I don't mean this political ............ I am just saying there is not an economic indicator that is true and free to show us true comparison.

 

Hobby's statement "all currency declines"  paraphrased ---------- Has me thinking.  I thought no at first.  But Industrial mass production(like overproducing wheat in the 60's) is the only circumstance I can think of that raises $$ buying power.  ie computers, cell phones, model T's --- but it is still a narrow comparison.......

In the dounut industry I can't make it work.  The earlier I get there the greater the supply and I can't get thwo for one. Smiley Happy

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

Hope she gets good reports Hobby.   Will check in later.

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: the dollar is NOT higher

SW, if you'd show up even an hour earlier to the donut shop you could probably help them glaze the donut holes and increase your odds of a higher return.  Smiley Very Happy

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