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Contributor

the euro

 

Expect more trouble for the euro....The French was very close to leave the euro last Sunday , he is a fullblood men of France who shouted to Merkel to understand the threat and friendship between the two big in the currencyunion.

A leak fram Spain.

Germans don`t like shouting people.....

A comment for todays eurodip

bw

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Veteran Advisor

Re: the euro

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I was listening this morning to the podcast that I get each day from RTÉ Radio One from Ireland, about all of this.

The Fianna Gail Party and Fine Fail Party are fighting about how much control the EU is proposing over Corporate Tax rates.  Ireland has always (since the Celtic Tiger began) used low corporation taxes to lure in investments into Ireland..... which is why they had been doing so well.

But alas, like much of Europe, they spent it all away on social programs and "entitlements", and the EU is desperate for money, from anywhere..... so are talking about forcing Ireland to accept the EU's dictates of tax rates.

Ireland is getting very upset at this proposal.

I am beginning to see the seams of the EU fabric beginning to tear apart.   The Euro is now worth what it was, against the Dollar, five years ago.....about 1 Euro to $1.26.

Things are looking more scary each and every day.

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Contributor

Re: the euro

 

Hello Miligan

Thanks ....and one more example that EU is a dog and cow and fish and flower in the same box!!!!

Hard for these to live in the same environment!!!

Sweden and England is outside euro

best w

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: the euro

Hey euro a question for you. Do you know what impact the falling euro will have on ag imports from us?  Do we export enough to you guys to make a difference in our commodity prices.  OR is the impact more that with a cheap euro you guysmay be less competitive on the world mkt as the dollar is still the currency oil is traded in?

As to the dairy MKt.s with the dollar stronger against the euro it is still weaker against the NZ and Australian currencies so we may still be very competitive in the dairy export business that may hurt you guys even more. Seems sometimes we have to much to think about. JR

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Senior Contributor

Re: the euro

The UK (England&Ireland) joined the EU in 1973. Are you saying they don't use the euro for currency ?

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Contributor

Re: the euro

 

Hi

Ierland converted away their pound but England Scotland NothernIerland and Wales did not.

Much depended on Margret Thatcher. " Never ever we will set the Sterling fore sale"

I think Cameron and his new guys are going to ride the hurricane out.

 

As I have said before the EU have lot of scepticals in the old Vikingcountries England Denmark  Sweden

Icland and the rich Oil-Norway are still outside.

We have our relatives in Minnesota and illinois and we follow US-news closer than France or Germany

 

The economic trouble in EU is created beause of different culture in north and south

bw

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Re: the euro

 

Hi  jr

For us in Sweden, with our crown wich now adays is strong against euro but weak or normal against USD , there is a concern on the soy if than the soy would rise on fundamentals too the feedtraders would be very nervous.

This is hard headache in the eurocountries because the farmers there with lot of cows have no alternativ to soymeal.GMO or not The milkpowder is traded in USD fonterra and makes good for the EU export.

The exportwheat from France have easier to compete on the worldmarket but all in all the weakness create higher taxes to cut natonaldeficit and farmers have to pay too..

What do you think on the rising american milkproduktion 0,9% up latest.

Is the rising milkpriceparty over to the end of this year.

Germany up 1,3% latest

best w

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Veteran Advisor

Re: the euro

YOu know I still think if the midwest has another cool summer than yea the milk price party is over.  It won't fall much from here but it won't go higher. 

THe two things to watch for are

1. if extended heat and hummidity settle into the midwest it will push prices higher.

2. If water gets shut down to Cali dairies trhan all bets are off!

I think our demand domestically us pretty well set for the year.  Our only hope for big runups is a supply problem.  I have already mentioned two.

Other factors will be rising interest.  The large dairies cannot operate if the interst rises as they are OPERATING on borrowed money.

Also for us if feed grains esp-ecially corn go off this summer( and if we have a hot one they will ) Then it puts severe operating pressure on the big farms.

All in all I see lots of potential for an up it might not come with historical production but it is sitting there waitng for that bounce. Best of fortunes to you, JR

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Re: the euro

JR,    I will never understand why the "average" ie:small dairies always think that "large" dairies will suffer more than they when economic conditions change. You mention two factors that will hurt large dairies: drought and interest rates. Let's take a looksy at those.

 

I service a 2000 cow dairy. I raise all their grains and forage and take all their manure. I know their business well. Since they raise no crops (although they own a good chunk of tillable land that I farm) a drought only impacts their price of feed...maybe. I personally have a significant risk as the crop farmer due to a drought scenerio that they have passed on to me. Compare this to the traditional dairy that now may be short of expensive feed because they do it all themselves. Now they are short on milk and feed and cash...ouch to the little guy.

 

Interest rates don't pertain to the size of the dairy only to the debt load of the dairy. You paint with a very wide brush...stating that all large dairies run on borrowed monies which implies that small dairies do not. I think we both know better than that. If not,drive around your county today after church and look at all the former small dairies.

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Advisor

Re: the euro

Patriot, the only small dairies in my area that have survived since 2007 are pretty well off.  Most are self financed with little to no debt.  Drought affects them, however, they manage their business very conservatively with excess feed stocks and lower overhead.  Most dairies that have gone under seemed to have everything going for them, their economy of size (2000 head or larger), location to available feedstocks at market prices, access to large tracts of productive land and great financing.  However, a number of them buckled under, even with these advantages.  That's not to say all big dairies are doing poorly or went out of business, but one cannot say they as a group fared any better. 

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