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Advisor

the other side of weather hope

as far as hoping that a weather problem will tighten stocks up for multiple years.

 

We might have a significantly short crop but I'll continue to maintain that we still haven't had a super boomer year like '82,'94 and '04 in a while.

 

Different sides of the belt have had great crops the last two years but the other has been nicked up considerably. In the years I mentioned problems were highly localized and more producers than not had their highest yield ever to date.

 

We've discussed this before- in that scenario nat'l avg., what, maybe 185 and 50?

 

I mention this only because hope is nice but sometimes reality delivers exactly what you don't want.

 

Worst thing about that would be that just like a short crop might deliver multi-year benefits but the boomer might hang over things for years. So I certainly hope not. I can figure out how to protect from one huge crop/low price year but the next one or two could be very hard.

 

PS., like the years mentioned I'd say those are about 1 in 10 or 12 year events. Just because we haven't had one for a while doesn't make it any more likely imho.

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5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: the other side of weather hope

I`m hoping for a equal "bad growing year" next year to give everyone`s yield a nice 25% haircut.  However, i`m betting that it`ll be another recordish crop. If those out east and south had it as good as they claimed they did in 2014 and we had the crop we did this year, there may have been a 185 national corn yield. 

 

It does not take a 'perfect year" anymore to have a record crop.  Everyone is overpowered, tile layed on top of tile...strip-til ect.  All it will take to have a perenial burdensome supply is only a year where no one has truly bad weather.  That will be a supply that will take years to dig out of and not go away without everyone feeling alot of pain.

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: the other side of weather hope

185 is not attainable with more than 75 million acres.

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Honored Advisor

Re: the other side of weather hope

Monsanto promised us bright tomorrows........Smiley Tongue

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Advisor

Re: the other side of weather hope

ECB and midsouth have a '14, WCB has a '15 and the SW belt doesn't get messed up and we'll do 190.

 

Those situations don't occur often but like the years I mentioned, they can.

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Advisor

Re: the other side of weather hope

Countercyclical programs would kick in pretty big under those scenarios until the averages start to fade.

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