as far as hoping that a weather problem will tighten stocks up for multiple years.
We might have a significantly short crop but I'll continue to maintain that we still haven't had a super boomer year like '82,'94 and '04 in a while.
Different sides of the belt have had great crops the last two years but the other has been nicked up considerably. In the years I mentioned problems were highly localized and more producers than not had their highest yield ever to date.
We've discussed this before- in that scenario nat'l avg., what, maybe 185 and 50?
I mention this only because hope is nice but sometimes reality delivers exactly what you don't want.
Worst thing about that would be that just like a short crop might deliver multi-year benefits but the boomer might hang over things for years. So I certainly hope not. I can figure out how to protect from one huge crop/low price year but the next one or two could be very hard.
PS., like the years mentioned I'd say those are about 1 in 10 or 12 year events. Just because we haven't had one for a while doesn't make it any more likely imho.
