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Veteran Contributor

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diuscussion has gonetpo near 0.

 

big report, interpretations?

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Senior Contributor

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Why don't you start us off, Artifice? What's your perspective? Enlighten us and many will follow. What do you think about this report?

 

Mike

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My take is this. 

 

Yield may have been the highest we will see all year, it may not be.  But I think that even if production number go up, there will be demand to gobble it up.  The wild card is still wheat out of Russia.  Wheat is buying acres in the US and an acre battle will start soon. 

 

I am bullish grain for 2011.  The extra demand is only making me more bulled up.  I wouldn't be suprised to see short term weakness going into harvest however.

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Whats to talk about, Confirmation of excellent crops here not so in other parts of the world. We have grains and want the money, of other countrys, End of story. On the Diane Rehm show on PBS the other day Chris Hurt was on, agree totally. Who cares about the price of wheat. his remark, While wheat may be a tiny fraction of the world gdp no wheat you starve to death. People like Arty can't sem to get this in their head. Staided differently if you were a country leader you are quite aware of this. People get quite upset if  they go hungry, so whats a buck a bushel more?

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Senior Contributor

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I don't see wheat taking corn acres to any great degree. Compare irrigated wheat return to corn. I expect corn prices to strengthen. The decision to grow wheat is made before the decision to plant corn however. Beans double crop with wheat is a calculation that may work. I expect bean prices to strengthen also.

 

Because the Russian wheat crop has a large feed grain use I believe that corn benefits too. The calculation will hinge on historical price ratios. Another month is going to help clarify the situation. I'll guess 3 months from now we will see the impact of a Russian production implosion. And don't forget China.

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Palouser. A couple of things my Russian messenger friends tell me-- the fires are out of control mainly grass fire.  Children can not play outside because of the heat and smoke, few russians can afford air conditioning, they are not happy campers, their government is under a lot of pressure.   The price of food is raising fast, russians do not have good vegetables(potatoes yes, but that crop is suffering) and eat a lot of meat.   So I imagine a shortage of fodder.  It will require a few years of good crops for them to recover.   I saw something about China importing fodder, it make me think crops in China can't be very good, they were cloud seeding last year because of drought.   I believe supply and demand data is smoke and mirrors.

 

  But you seem to have much better information about international conditions and I am stretching my knowledge and information.  What do you make of it?? 

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 Guess you already answered this, didn't see your post about russian crop over rated. 

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Senior Contributor

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you can also remove 18 millions tons of wheat in india stored under tarps with some having gone thru their third monsoon. i assume pal will provide the correct figures. it aint just russia. d7

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There are some high profile incidents of Indian bureaucrats being fired for letting wheat spoil, but then again, it's tough to keep wheat in conditions when stacked in huge blocks of bags. India tried to figure a way to export but in the end, the additional money needed to subsidize exports in order to bring them down to the global price from the domestic protected price was too much of a political risk.

 

I think India will be OK for stocks this year. It always depends on the next harvest.

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