"Corn and wheat are lower this morning the weather forecast is improved; it is showing a warmer drier pattern developing next week that could allow for a ramp up in spring planting, especially across the central and southern belt. Now areas that have received 2-4 inches of rain this week like parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana will definitely need some time to dry out and areas in the north also need time for snow to melt off and soil temperatures to warm up.
Overall, the weather outlook does appear to be improving based on today's forecast and it looks like the US corn crop it will get off to a slower to average start based on the current forecast, but it does look to much improved vs. last year's nearly record slow start to planting season.
Beans are a little bit higher today with old crop tight stocks still the main supportive factor, one thing to keep in mind is the development of South American soybeans and soybean meal basis levels are falling. It is making prices in South America competitively priced to sell into the US for imports.
Logistics have to be worked out, but this could be a limiting factor for the soy complex going forward if cash prices in Brazil and Argentina continue to stay weak.
Looking ahead into next week weather will be a key factor and whether or not this improved weather outlook remains in the forecast allowing for a ramp up in spring corn planting. That will be a key factor and we also have our first weekly crop condition report of the season. That will be interesting to see what USDA does as fa r as winter wheat ratings; they will also come out with their very first corn planting number. Then looking ahead to Wednesday we have the April crop report."
