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Honored Advisor

tid Bits

"Corn and wheat are lower this morning the weather forecast is improved; it is showing a warmer drier pattern developing next week that could allow for a ramp up in spring planting, especially across the central and southern belt. Now areas that have received 2-4 inches of rain this week like parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana will definitely need some time to dry out and areas in the north also need time for snow to melt off and soil temperatures to warm up.

 

Overall, the weather outlook does appear to be improving based on today's forecast and it looks like the US corn crop it will get off to a slower to average start based on the current forecast, but it does look to much improved vs. last year's nearly record slow start to planting season.

 

Beans are a little bit higher today with old crop tight stocks still the main supportive factor, one thing to keep in mind is the development of South American soybeans and soybean meal basis levels are falling. It is making prices in South America competitively priced to sell into the US for imports.

 

Logistics have to be worked out, but this could be a limiting factor for the soy complex going forward if cash prices in Brazil and Argentina continue to stay weak.

 

Looking ahead into next week weather will be a key factor and whether or not this improved weather outlook remains in the forecast allowing for a ramp up in spring corn planting. That will be a key factor and we also have our first weekly crop condition report of the season. That will be interesting to see what USDA does as fa r as winter wheat ratings; they will also come out with their very first corn planting number. Then looking ahead to Wednesday we have the April crop report."

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24 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: tid Bits

MARKET COMMENTARY April 03, 2014

 

Raymond Jenkins

 

Overnight corn market was in recovery mode, but faded a bit before the 7:45 to 8:30 time out, and we had some periodic weakness during the day session----but managed a finishing kick and closed up 4+ cent all the way through July 2015. The front month bean contracts posted 11-12 cent gains as well, and even the wheat had a positive close in both Chicago and KC versions.

 

I just looked at one of my moisture accumulation sources, and it shows we have had a whopping 15/100 of an inch so far, which may have been enough to settle dust and get folks worried their trucks “might” get dirty, but have certainly done little to replenish soil moisture.

 

One of the websites I use is the Army Corps site with the following email address:

 

 

http://rivergages.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/new/layout.cfm

 

Click on the map for your preferred region, then click on the river basin you desire. Clicking on the far right number will open another page with seven day totals.

 

 

I'm a day late with this but has a good link, thanks Ray J

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Frequent Contributor

Re: tid Bits

If Ray's will not work, try this:

 

http://rivergages.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/new/layout.cfm

 

Thanks Ray, that is a very good sie.

 

Jim W

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Veteran Contributor

Re: tid Bits

There won't be any field work here next week!
had 1.7 inches Wedsday night - Thursday morning
had 3 inches yesterday and another 1.3 after midnight till this morning. River here as jumped 5 ft. in the last 24 hours
and this morning they have forcasted to go another 5.5 ft by Monday afternoon, AND we are inline for a another .75 of rain Monday!!
but it will dry out someday

Think I'll put some bait traps, and do a little fishing next week
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Veteran Advisor

Re: tid Bits

"The forecast shows a warmer, drier period, which will allow for spring planting"

First, the wheat does not need a drier and
Warmer period.

Second, we usually don't plant hrw wheat
In the spring.

Maybe we should have an agriculture basics
Class for the Chicago crowd.
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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: tid Bits

Maybe some of us don't plant wheat at all.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: tid Bits

Then don't spoil it for the rest of us
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Honored Advisor

Re: tid Bits

MARKET COMMENTARY April 04, 2014

 

Raymond Jenkins

 

A late session rally in corn futures allowed for positive closes in old and new crop futures, and week to week gains.

 

However, the strength was much greater in the new crop months, and you can choose from a variety of reasons why old crop May and July were up less than two cents, but new crop months were up 4-5 cents today.

 

What we do know is that the corn market generally puts in risk premium during the late winter and spring months, and then decides whether additional value needs to be added, or subtracted, as we progress through the planting season and on into the heart of the growing season in June, July, and August.

 

What does seem to be a constant is that rallies based on planting delays are meant to be sold, so be paying attention!

 

Ray Jenkins

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Honored Advisor

This Mornings tour

chickens.jpg

 

20,000 chickens, layers, all organic, free range. laying at around 98%. Got a tour of the place this morning. Most of the eggs all come out into a very clean  packing room that is mostly automated.  They come out of the nesting boxes right into a "packer" on a wide plastic belt. From there they go on pallets to the cooler room @ 38 degrees. 900 dozen/pallet (10800). They ALL go to California. Right now only about 300 hens are missing the nests. Little over 500 ft long building. Nice days they are allowed out of the building in the afternoons. Brown eggs.

 

Everything is monitored, heat, water consumption, feed useage, light, All can be recalled by the hr and day in the control room.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: This Mornings tour

Wow, would like to see how they would handle that on "free range"!

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