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Honored Advisor

tid bit

Wow after all the things that have happened this year...

 

Dry ideal spring

 

Way too wet June

 

Nice July

 

A little too dry first part of Aug

 

Would have irrigated if I could have.

 

Two floods the last two weekends of Aug

 

A bonus flood first part of Sept

 

Was the year without Sunshine just had daylight.

 

A new record cold snap in Nov

 

Now two days and one night in the fifties

 

The snow is gone and the yard has really greened up

 

The wife says NO YARD MOWING at Thanksgiving.

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Honored Advisor

Re: tid bit

Closing commentary

 

November 21, 2014

 

By Gary Cleland 

 

 

 

 

 

                                               

 

 

 

The market saw a hard break in last 2 minutes of trade for both corn and wheat. 

 

Dec corn dropped 8.25 cents and Dec wheat 4.75 cents in those 2 minutes.  Both backed away from the previous week’s high close for the move.  Corn seems as much a trading range at this point. The hard break in Dec corn to close the week could very well be connected to options expiration today, honing in on the 370 strike in Dec, although in the end, no one knows, but we'll make something to fit the story. 

 

Bottom line in corn, the heavy Fund length will look at next week, as we are approaching the end of the month, last trading day next Friday, and evaluate the monthly performance which is slightly in the red as of today's close. Roughly 40 thousand contracts of additional Fund length entered the market this month.  The wheat strength is as much a mystery, but knowing Funds were a record short as much as 6 weeks ago, here also fits that Funds have bought the market, this short covering has provided the market with the bid and subsequent rally seen, that ended last week Friday.  Unlike Dec corn, Dec wheat is up for the month some 15 cents.

 

 

 

 

 

It was a quick reversal for the bean and meal market from the Wednesday lows, almost a 40 cent rally in Jan beans and $13.00 rally in meal off the lows.  Soy oil is a passenger to the meal volatility, up some 50 points for the week , but after the rejection of the soy oil rally 1 month ago, it continues to tread in similar trading range seen since Aug.  While Dec meal closed modestly lower for the week, Jan meal was higher on the week and the function of the market was peeling off the Dec open interest, with Dec options expiration today, and first notice day next week. 

 

A loaded up Dec meal open interest is particularly sensitive, with ZF meal spread pressured though the week relative to FH meal spread.  Meanwhile, the nearby US domestic basis continues to be very well supported and processor replacement margins scream, CRUSH!   ZF lost $2.00 to the FH on the week and traded lower than that today, all a function of  Dec liquidation. 

 

  Everything continues to underscore the demand for soybeans, for export as well as crush, record levels on both items.  While the US export demand for beans is on the wane, we do have 21.5 mmt of beans sold currently on the books, compared to 21.8 mmt last year, same time.  We have exported 73% of these sales to date, compared to 62% last year.  Here, the beans are moving out.  Meal is interesting, in that, with 5.5 mmt of meal exports on the books, this compares to 4.7 mmt last year same time.  But we have exported just 1.1 mmt of meal to date, while last year we had export 1.2 mmt at same time.  So just 20% of this demand, compared to 26% last year, same time.  If seems that if this is the year of record export demand, beans are holding up their end of the bargain, meal is lagging.  Does all this meal still move out of the US, and if not what does this mean for the already burdensome ending stocks for beans.

 

 

 

 

Price action remains ruled by an order flow that seems to have a life of its own and more volatility than what is actually going on the physical markets.  The money runs the zoo right now seeing huge breaks, huge rallies, and then the questions come, "what's going on? did anyone hear anything?  there must be something going on for this type of price action affecting board crush to move 10 cents in a day.....it must be this, or it must be that"  Sadly, there does not seem to be enough going on, but in fact this is the market make up in the electronic market make up.

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Re: tid bit

man o man I love the modern luxuries we have.  

 

Wife surprised me with a fresh baked raspberry pie this afternoon,  

 

Sure was nice to have a freezer to keep them in just picked condition since July.

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