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Honored Advisor

tid bits

There are concerns over winter grain conditions after cold weather in Russia's southern regions over the weekend, SovEcon said, adding that it will be able to estimate the effect in about a week.

 

Its index before the weekend had been showing that conditions for planting were above a multi-year average.

 

The Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, Russia's key grain growing regions near the Black Sea, saw temperatures of minus 5 Celsius (23 Fahrenheit) during nights and morning hours over the weekend.

 

Night time temperatures below zero are also expected in Stavropol this week, according to state weather forecasters.

 

Meanwhile, Russia's spring sowing was going slightly faster than last year, according to agriculture ministry data. Russia plans to sow 53.0 million hectares of crops this spring, including 31.8 million hectares with grains and pulses. As of March 28, it had handled 712,200 hectares, or 1.3 percent of the whole planned spring area, which was 240,600 hectares more than at the same date a year ago. Reuters

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Honored Advisor

Re: tid bits

"Trade expectations for US planting are for corn acres to be down about 2.5 million acres from last year, soybean acres are expected to be up 4.5 million acres from last year, while all wheat acreage is expected to come in close to l ast years total, perhaps just slightly lower.

 

From a quarterly stocks perspective, the stock numbers are expected to be friendly for soybeans and negative for corn, which is how the market is braced right now.

 

We have prices this morning that are just a little bit lower, but once the government numbers come out at 11 o'clock we could see some significant moves."

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Honored Advisor

Re: tid bits

Let me see if I have this right . . . .

Ukraine buys almost all its energy (natural gas) from Russia.


Because of the recent disagreement between Ukraine and Russia, Russia is raising the price of natural gas it sells to Ukraine.

Ukraine is almost broke and can’t afford the increase in the natural gas price because it would be forced into bankruptcy.

President Obama just announced the United States is giving Ukraine $1 billion to assist in paying for the higher priced natural gas it buys from Russia.

So, the United States is actually giving Russia $1 billion because in reality, the money is just passing through Ukraine.

The first question: Has Putin figured out a way to raise the price of his natural gas sales and make the U.S. pay for the increase?

If this analysis is accurate, Putin just got Obama to pay him $1 billion by holding a press conference and trucking some troops across town from the Russian Navy base in Ukraine.

Next question: Who is the smartest guy in the room?
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Honored Advisor

Re: tid bits

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YOU IN FINDING  WHERE YOU
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Honored Advisor

Re: tid bits

MARKET COMMENTARY March 31, 2014

 

Raymond Jenkins

 

For the two hours prior to the 11AM report, the “mind of the market” appeared to be dialing in bearish numbers as corn futures traded down 10-15 cents. The report was friendly enough to get an instant reaction back to the plus side, with the highs in the last half hour of corn trading today, with May, July, and September contracts closing above $5.

 

So what were the market driving numbers today?

 

Corn stocks as of March 1 were 7.006 billion bushels, which was about 100 million bushels less than the average guess.

 

Prospective corn plantings were 91.7 million acres, about 1 million acres less than expected; with the majority of the reduced acreage showing up in the areas considered as being the fringe states of the corn-belt.

 

It is important to remember that the survey data was collected in the first half of March, and we have had some shifts in corn vs. soybean values since.

 

The corn/soybean price ratio (determined by dividing the value of November beans by December corn), has gone from 2.47 at the end of February to 2.38 today.

 

Perhaps more important is the fact that December corn is approaching the $5 level; and tomorrow we will start seeing a lot of weather data about the lateness of the onset of spring fieldwork and the lack of moisture during the month of March this year.

 

In other words, we will NOT lack for plenty of information to digest and discuss going forward.

 

I find it interesting that the spread between December 2014 and July 2015 futures is a mere 13 cents. IF we grow a goodly sized crop, that spread could approach 25-35 cents. However, it should be noted that demand has been regained more quickly than expected, especially for US corn, and if we eventually trade December corn down into the 4.00-4.25 level, it will only spur additional interest for US corn.

 

At least it is NOT a dull and boring market!

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: tid bits

dust.png

 

Picture taken 40ish miles north of Hays, Kansas about 10:30 this morning.

 

I would not presell any crop out there right now. True color image from a friends cell phone. Not good. They are depressed out there in farm country.

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: tid bits

I can attest for that photo Hobby, I'm about 40 miles SE of Hays and it probably took a little less that 1-1/2 hours for that dirt to reach me. They say April is our windy month, if it's worse than March we will be in trouble.
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Honored Advisor

today's photo's

dust in the air.jpg

Not a Kansas quality dust storm but dust in the air from there right here in south central Iowa. this afternoon.

 

starting on the [ile.jpg

They have started on the last pile of about 1.8 million bu

 

storm line 33114.jpg


Line of storms that popped up just east of us this afternoon. That line is just leaving the st of Iowa right now.

 

Was finishing up the last grain contract this afternoon, topped the hill west of my house and there was a terrible smoke cloud just ahead in our 30+ mph wind this afternoon. Neighbors had a fire get away from them. they weren't too concerned till another neighbor got a little bent out of shape.

 

Lucky the second neighbor got excited... nine firetrucks and one ranger 4x4 with a small tank and hose system spent 3 hrs on that fire. Came within 100 ft of a new house on an acreage.

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Honored Advisor

Re: today's photo's

Yesterday's data

 

High 77 - middle of afternoon

 

strong winds all day - gusts to just an even 50 mph

 

@ 10 pm temp had dropped to 31 (23 out this morning)

 

where's the long underware again?

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