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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: trend line plus

I can see where the 'greater good' of water is for cities, and not crop ground, but what do you tell a farmer, who owns water rights to his land, and isn't allowed to use the water, and isn't compensated for his crop losses due to his water being limited? 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

Buck seed tech has accomplished a few things---reduced use of pesticides(worth the effort for sure), reduced herbicide carry over, and a few more---all management improvements which help an operator handle more acres, which in turn creates a few "effeciency" bushels that might have been lost before.  But we(our farm) have been testing the the "drought tolerant, lower water need" trait corn for 2 years in real good test conditions, and the varieties will stay greener longer, emerge noticeably better, and produce a blank ear as well as any other.  So far the old axium of x water= x bushels has not been changed.  Seed tech has improved bto(the ones who can afford it) management more than per acre production.

 

Is seed tech valuable-----yes and worth the massive $$ we are investing.

Is trend line important------yes, it shows us how today compares to yesterday.

Do either tell us the future-------I doubt it because we cannot control or even measure all the variables in the equation.  But it does give us hope for the future.

 

If trend line theory promotion was applied to seed tech we could probably see a time when we could buy a bag, throw it in the bin and wait.

New ground west-----water water water-----Ag water west is being taken to urbanization faster than the "trend line" is going up, closer to the national debt increase.  If u farm in colorado, california, arizona, west texas, western okla, west Ks. you are loosing water and water rights or fear the threat.

 

The future is bright, just unclear.

WILL Corn Values decline------------yes, a time of seeing $6 corn with $3 costs will not last, because your other theory is accurate capitalist farmers will try to increase production.  But here too there are a lot of variables.

My concern is will we see $4 corn with $4 costs or will we see $20 corn with $20 costs.  Both are declines in real value.

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

sorry didnt have time to spell ck that ----------so its probably  dgdfdfssdsd.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

Sorry I left nebr. Off restricted water list.
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

The other thing besides water (or lack there of) is the herbicide resistant weeds that are becoming a very real problem/threat

to balls to the walls production.

 

The days of 5000+ farms with only two guys doing most of it are numbered. Many of these old pests have and are developing resistance to 2-4D, Banvil and glyphos among others. There are no "new" silver bullets out there in the pipeline.

 

The days of more crop rotation, more summer fallow (for those in the western corn belt) and the use of cultivators is just around the corner. A friend of mine in NW Kansas that has been farming for over 30 years has NEVER run or owned a cultivator. He has just planted sprayed and harvested. Now he is spraying two or three times extra and still is having a weed problem.

 

This weed resistance with only cultivation as an effective weed control devise is going to limit the trend line yield more than any other thing in my opinion.

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: trend line plus

I plant everything from no-till to conventional till (on one small field where we feed cows in the spring) and can say whole-heartedly that cultivating, even on a dryland field in Nebraska, produces better yields than a field with weeds in it.

 I see fields where people are now spraying 3-4 times, and having no cleaner fields than I do with one spraying, followed by cultivation (this was not the case 3-4 years ago, though).  Is it really more economical to spray 2-3 times, versus cultivating, or is it a 'time' thing, where you can cover so many more acres in a day with a sprayer, or go in conditions a cultivator can't?

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: trend line plus

I don't think there is any doubt we will see yield expansion over the years. There is a question of how soon it will happen. I think the acceleration of research capability will develop new science quicker>

 

Pioneer seed doing research in an abandoned salt mine with controled temperature, sunlight and water will allow continuous experiments each year trying many possibilities. Without having to be limited by seasonal changes in the real world environment.

 

Drought resistant corn may hold the biggest potential as many more acres could produce bigger yeilds.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

Kraft I agree seed tech is going to make the per acre yield potential expand-------where water will allow it.  Like the tiled areas where water is not the limiting factor---much of the central cornbelt.  But does it therefore make more bushels of corn in total national production?  I think there are issues in water as well as alternative crop competition that might put us in a position of seeing yield ris