cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

Is $6 corn really rationing demand???    If corn goes to $7 or higher, $6 corn will increase demand, not ration it.  It's all relative folks.

0 Kudos
vrbuck
Advisor

Re: trend line plus

The trend in yield also says within ten years we could see a 17 billion by crop.
0 Kudos
nwiafmr
Frequent Contributor

Re: trend line plus

I am curious VRBuck, where we get the acres to produce 17 billion acres in ten years....if we are losing 1.5 million acres each year to urbanization.....?     I think eventually yield increases are going to be very small......

0 Kudos
farsider
Senior Contributor

Re: trend line plus

USDA has done all the leg work of projecting out for the next 10 years. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/OCE121/OCE121d.pdf Look back at 2003 for USDA projection to 2012, really your guess is as good as their guess . http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/waob031/waob20031c.pdf
0 Kudos
Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Re: trend line plus

Buck reminds me of all the guys that said , when land was selling for $1000 per acre, that if you just wait a little you can buy it for $500.

 

The Sky is always falling in someone's world.

0 Kudos
hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: trend line plus

One of the reasons why I was skeptical of the construction of the ethanol legislation was the extrapolated, accelerated trendline that was widely touted as fact and made it seem like supplying the corn to meet the mandate was no big deal. It has turned out to be a big deal as a couple of years' yield has fallen below trend (which it will) and we're chronically balanced on the edge of a grain crisis.

 

I think we already saw the big bump from genetics that handle higher pop- I suspect gains will be more on the order of the historical rate for quite a while now.

 

Even if you hit the top end of a theoretical line occasionally with great weather the cumulative production over 5 years will be less than if you draw a line with an upward slope and neatly plot 5 values on it. I think Ken has pointed that out a number of times- trend yiled is not average yield.

 

The coming year seems to call for some sort of barbell strategy- with the government no longer moving the goalposts via a higher ethanol mandate, a boomer crop brings stocks that indicate a price far lower than where it currently is. A sharply below trend yield calls for severe rationing and probably some longer term destruction to agriculture.

0 Kudos
Mike central IA
Veteran Contributor

Re: trend line plus

I don't think I am willing to buy into the "trendline yield theory" Sure, we have had some huge jumps in productivity due to science, husbandry, and just plain old dumb luck, but it appears to me that the "trendline" is flattening out and will not continue to infinity. There are limits to what we can do with the amount of sunlight and rain we receive, and we (for the largest share) have no control over these variables. It all depends on photosynthesis and moisture and fertility to produce these monster crops that are being predicted. Eventually we might produce these huge crops, but my hunch says it will take a lot more time to get there than most of those people wearing rose colored glasses  predict.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: trend line plus

Studying data to see what it tells us is not what happens here.  We just stack it around to make a good picture.  The trick is to rearrange it to make the picture look the way we want.

 

Trendline yield has been used to sell, and that is all that makes it useful.  It is an assumption that meets lots of needs----from justifying triple seed costs, ethanol subsidy or the land price promotion, the list of USERS of the assumption is long.

IMO---the list of things that affect trendline yield is even longer and may not be completely definable.  Like the CRP program taking marginal acres out of production, cheap fertilizer,  irrigation system improvements,-------------irrigation development  alone has probably done the most to build trendline with the major sprinkler development  happening in the same years as trendline rise, but irrigation changes also have the potential to have the opposite effect and may have been doing so for the last three years.-----.  When one state sues another and limits the best ground water in the nation,-------  all irrigating states are loosing water to municipalities and aging wells, while at the same time limiting or baring any new development,----------  Most states are seeing groundwater supply diminishing and as pumping levels drops, volume drops as cost expand-----They are worrying a lot more about water for cities than crops, and should be.

----------

One of many issues---but the fact is we just need data to support opinion here.  But you have to overlook a lot to find real, accurate data. 

vrbuck
Advisor

Re: trend line plus

At the same time seed development advances makes it possible to produce the same amount of bushels with less water every year.  In the future it will take even less to produce corn where it will open up new ground in the west no one would have though to grow corn.  Similarly the best producing ground will produce more bushels on less water in the future because of the same advances.

0 Kudos
USA ProFarmer
Contributor

Re: trend line plus

     After being insulted by these people I wouldn't take their bet either buck.  You would have to meet MT to collect the bet.  No steak taste that good, and I would hate the company,  think of the conversation you would have.

0 Kudos