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Contributor

trying to make sense of the math

Prevented Plant acres would seem to be a done deal and pretty solid number. Don't think much of anybody failed to plant and didn't file as such.

11 MA of corn PP filed which would imply actual intentions of 97 million. Doubt that, so I assume some folks fudged intentions a bit to get the bigger payment for corn PP?

Looks like 3+ MA of winter wheat PP. You can take 35% PP on wheat and still plant a crop so maybe a couple million acres, at most, entered back into the row crop mix (some of which would have been doublecropped anyway).

Anyhow, you still come up with at least 15 MA of unplanted crop land in row crops.

But I assume that the 86/74 certified numbers are also legit. 

Actually, vs. the 93/80 intentions, that's about 13 MA so not so wildly beyond some of the normal discrepancies that show up some years in counting all crop acres.

Nothing solved here but I'm increasingly comfortable that something like 86/74 is bankable.

And, the yields are immaterial- not based on objective survey. 

Question is, how many of the 86/74 go unharvested, or what do they contribute to the average?

As I said, I was more impressed by the market's willingness to not examine the numbers than I was by the reports themselves. Which does say something.

Interested in any comments. Except for complaining, because Sonny says that farmers are whiners and we wouldn't want a bad reputation.

 

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9 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: trying to make sense of the math

OJ Simpson had about as much incentive to make his hand fit in his blood soaked glove in the courtroom "glove don`t fit, must acquit!"  .."13.9 billion bushel of corn, gotta buy it cheaper! hey I didn`t say it, USDA did"

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Contributor

Re: trying to make sense of the math

One thing is inescapable.

There is a tremendous amount of dysfunction within this administration.

The War on Expertise is raging and this report may have been a side effect.

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Advisor

Re: trying to make sense of the math


@sdholloway56 wrote:

Prevented Plant acres would seem to be a done deal and pretty solid number. Don't think much of anybody failed to plant and didn't file as such.

11 MA of corn PP filed which would imply actual intentions of 97 million. Doubt that, so I assume some folks fudged intentions a bit to get the bigger payment for corn PP?

Looks like 3+ MA of winter wheat PP. You can take 35% PP on wheat and still plant a crop so maybe a couple million acres, at most, entered back into the row crop mix (some of which would have been doublecropped anyway).

Anyhow, you still come up with at least 15 MA of unplanted crop land in row crops.

But I assume that the 86/74 certified numbers are also legit. 

Actually, vs. the 93/80 intentions, that's about 13 MA so not so wildly beyond some of the normal discrepancies that show up some years in counting all crop acres.

Nothing solved here but I'm increasingly comfortable that something like 86/74 is bankable.

And, the yields are immaterial- not based on objective survey. 

Question is, how many of the 86/74 go unharvested, or what do they contribute to the average?

As I said, I was more impressed by the market's willingness to not examine the numbers than I was by the reports themselves. Which does say something.

Interested in any comments. Except for complaining, because Sonny says that farmers are whiners and we wouldn't want a bad reputation.

 


I figure the 86 corn number drops to 72 to 77 million kinda decent acres harvested. 

BTW I have Always figured those acres or supposed acres from / between 80 to 90 million are simply 10 million acres of Junk or 0 low yield wet crap. 

I'm a Whiner.  And I've got a lot of friends in Low Places who whine too.   ALL for Good Reason. 

Be sure you tell Scumbag Purdue I said That.  LoL

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: trying to make sense of the math

Garbage data in

 

Garbage data out.

 

Biggest trash can in the #'s is counting all the PP acres planted to corn for silage as 160+ bu corn for harvest as grain.

Contributor

Re: trying to make sense of the math

82.5 million harvested acres x 169 = 13.9 billion bu crop. 7.5 million unharvested acres. Does that seem high? 86 million certified acres - 7.5 = 78.5 x 169 = 13.3 billion crop. By the way, what's the difference between a 747 and a farmer when they get to Florida? Think about it... That's right. The 747 stops whining!

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Veteran Contributor

RE: It's the 86 number that I have the most trouble with.

March intentions was 91.7,  PP is 11.2.  How do you get 85.8 planted when 91.7 - 11.2 is 80.5?

I could see if you took prevent plant corn, took the discount and planted beans but that's not what the numbers suggest.

I guess I could see some producers faced with taking prevent plant on either corn or beans and opting to take prevent plant corn.

The numbers are still somewhat internally consistent though.  Last year,  corn, beans, and wheat totaled 219.2 million plannted with 1.5 million PP for a grand total of 220.7 million.  This year they are 204.8 plus 17.8 for 222.6, only off by 2 million(1%)

  What the numbers do seem to imply is that during the late period in June, producers went all out to plant corn over beans which  makes sense given the trade war scenario they were facing.

 

 

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Contributor

Re: RE: It's the 86 number that I have the most trouble with.

If I recall correctly I had until June 20th to certify prevent plant acres @FSA. Was there a final date to certify prevent plant acres for everyone? Form CCC 576

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Contributor

Re: RE: It's the 86 number that I have the most trouble with.

I conclude the 86 is probably a decent number although I expect at least 10 won't be harvested for grain.

There's nothing terribly bearish about the numbers taken in total but "the market" sure thought there was.

Unfortunately that price action probably puts a lid on any rally.

I'll stick with 76ma X 162= 12.3 bb.

I'll go with the 74 number on beans, too, but it will take a perfect Sep/early Oct to hit that yield.

An early frost could probably knock 3-4 off beans, 5-6 off corn. I'm not particularly rooting for that- I don't get a say in it.

Except for the hit to APH, a lot of farmers might come out better in that scenario, too.

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Honored Advisor

Re: RE: It's the 86 number that I have the most trouble with.

The freeze date is the whole ball of wax, what the cheap food USDA is gambling on is a later than normal freeze date.  Because planting corn late and letting the crop insurance settle up with you at the end of the season pays better every day than prevent plant.    Farmers did that math and claimed they intended on planting a collective 101 million acres of corn, when a couple months earlier we were calling BS on if 90 million acres of corn would happen...you dangle enough carrots in front of the donkey and you`ll be amazed where he pulls the wagon.

This guy is interesting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRJX11d01QI&feature=youtu.be

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