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ne 50
Veteran Contributor
‎02-01-2019 08:22 AM

typical confusion

it is normal these days to be confused somewhat about the news... esp when it comes to ag news but today take the cake.

 

various 'sources' have 5million tons or metric tons every day or one time purchase.. clarification seems to be tough to get one way or the other..many are blaming translation.. okay.. so this is just one instance.. one trade area .. now carry that confusion to every issue.. let's say there are 30 issues,, ie. steel, tech, autos, corn, pork, beef, etc.  now you can see just how complicated these trade negotiations can be...one word makes a major difference ... so glad they got it absolutly right the first time..(not) 

 

one other thought ... so what if it is 5MMT per day... they never said how many days... or how many times... 5MMt today and 5MMT a week from today... 5MMT two weeks from now... why would they tip their hand... they won't their the Chinese....up to their 30MMT total.. and with the delay in the reports it's a perfect storm for confusion...

 

I guess all I'm saying is nothing has really changed ...buy the rumor sell the fact is alive and well in America... 

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2 Replies
illinifarmer
Advisor
‎02-01-2019 11:17 AM

Re: typical confusion

You hit the nail on the head with that one. News headline on Agriculture.com soybeans surge Friday on trade talks. Reality they’re up 7c less than what they lost yesterday. However when the tariffs talks were in effect months ago -30c a day without hesitation. I guess all I’m saying is 5mmt a week a month does it matter to these folks probably not. If and when these issues come to conclusion are we expected to receive +2.00$ on the week for soybeans? We both already know the answer, market suppression and profit taking doesn’t work like that. Weather the ultimate variable, a unmentioned meek talking point as of now, until they spun it to work for their agenda. Gl out there and stay warm another big year in the works. Even if it’s upside is break even.
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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor
‎02-01-2019 11:22 AM

Re: typical confusion

I think you guys are right about the little market jumps and that is why I do very little trading.  Congratulations to those of you who are good at it - you keep the market liquid.  Me?  I don't do it well so that's why I put in sell orders in a hedging mode and let the market come to me.

 

Of course, I am as jumpy as anyone when it comes to selling the cash.  That's why if there's a big carry I usually sell the carry.

 

Oh, well, back to ignoring the news.  It's more restful.  🙂

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