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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

week 3-4 forecast

9 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

'74, I think, when a couple of kids named Freese and Notis made their careers by predicting a frost on 9/3. That was followed up by a bigger one around the 18th, I think?

BTW, I am in no way predicting that- chicken bones forecasting methods notwithstanding.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

BTW, full moon 9/14.

If you happen to be an Old Wife or something.

 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

At minimum it suggests that we're going to be rooting for a turtle crop at the finish line.

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lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

Don't know about the rest of you folks but that forecast is the opposite of what we need in SCMN.

We need heat to push this late crop.  Picked up another inch of rain yesterday around noon.

Also un-neccesary after the half inch we got over the weekend.

All the rain this year has created the worst case of nitrogen leeching I can remember.

 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

Seeing some firing of lower leaves even in very immature fields in IN and E IL.

Best guess would be that N was put on pre-plant and then the producer was pretty well committed to corn. Some may have not felt like investing any more in it.

Lotta little stuff like that out there but I can't say any better than anyone else how it all comes together. But I lean to the not as well as hoped side of things.

The tour thing that's going on really doesn't do a lot to disprove USDA's (non-survey) state by state numbers- they already had IN down 20, for example.

May come down more to the question of how good the good corn is.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

When we hit a national yield of 176 there's a lot of 220s where the good corn is.

swmi
Frequent Contributor

Re: week 3-4 forecast



@sdholloway56 wrote:

Seeing some firing of lower leaves even in very immature fields in IN and E IL.

Best guess would be that N was put on pre-plant and then the producer was pretty well committed to corn. Some may have not felt like investing any more in it.

Lotta little stuff like that out there but I can't say any better than anyone else how it all comes together. But I lean to the not as well as hoped side of things.

The tour thing that's going on really doesn't do a lot to disprove USDA's (non-survey) state by state numbers- they already had IN down 20, for example.

May come down more to the question of how good the good corn is.


@sdholloway56 wrote:

Seeing some firing of lower leaves even in very immature fields in IN and E IL.

Best guess would be that N was put on pre-plant and then the producer was pretty well committed to corn. Some may have not felt like investing any more in it.

Lotta little stuff like that out there but I can't say any better than anyone else how it all comes together. But I lean to the not as well as hoped side of things.

The tour thing that's going on really doesn't do a lot to disprove USDA's (non-survey) state by state numbers- they already had IN down 20, for example.

May come down more to the question of how good the good corn is.



@sdholloway56 wrote:

Seeing some firing of lower leaves even in very immature fields in IN and E IL.

Best guess would be that N was put on pre-plant and then the producer was pretty well committed to corn. Some may have not felt like investing any more in it.

Lotta little stuff like that out there but I can't say any better than anyone else how it all comes together. But I lean to the not as well as hoped side of things.

The tour thing that's going on really doesn't do a lot to disprove USDA's (non-survey) state by state numbers- they already had IN down 20, for example.

May come down more to the question of how good the good corn is.


 

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swmi
Frequent Contributor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

I’m guessing that 90% of the corn planted in Michigan on heavy soil was planted in June and may not make it to maturity at the finish line. I’m looking at at least 28% moisture at harvest if I’m lucky.

freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: week 3-4 forecast

My dog is taller than the corn in Michigan.