weekly ethanol news

[vrbuck]

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W

Need to see the plants cut back more then that from the new weekly report.  In fact production increased from the weekl before.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Stocks keep increasing so it must  be good to the las drop.  All be it at a slower weekly rate.

[junior359]

that chart only shows data from 52 weeks???????????????

[rusureofit]

Spoiler

Come on VR, huge ethanol stocks?.......we've been there and done that for the last two months.   That has already been priced in and that is why corn is not over $7.00 right now.  Those ethanol plants that have $5 corn contracts to be delivered yet, and will keep grinding on that.  I bought the story that we were going to plant and harvest a huge crop last year too.  So I sold some of the cheap corn last year and delivered it this winter.   You sound an awful lot like the local feed plant manager.  He always says there is a huge crop coming and wants me to forward sell next years crop well below the current cash price.  Give me some fresh feed for the bear, or he is going to die soon!

[farsider]

East coast stocks are still building, waiting for Europe to send tankers?long wait maybe. Rest of country is seeing a leveling off or dropping stock levels, room in the Midwest and gulf coast but ethanol is moving. Let's keep watching what is happening on the east coast supply. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_R20_MBBL&f=W Looks like the Midwest has room for more compared to what was on hand last year and also where a majority of the plants are sitting. Going down some due to plant closings? WASDE report unchanged from last month ethanol corn use, thought we would see a change. Ethanol production up from week to week And also almost reaching year ago levels without some of these plants running, interesting. Lots of info to dissect. No easy answer to what is going on.

[GoredHusker]

There is a lot of information to digest, and if everyone else has the same situation as my local situation the information may not even be factual.  I've always compared our local ethanol plants to China.  Information is hard to come by, and it may not even be factual.  When I sign a distillers contract for lets say two loads of wet per week, the contract is very one sided.  If the product is there, I have to take the loads regardless.  If the product isn't there, I get nothing and a lot of times not even a phone call with zero recourse.  This winter has been nothing short of phenomenal for feeding cattle.  My lots will be empty at least three weeks before normal.  I'm going to have to take delivery on six loads of distillers at least that I don't need.  It will be up to me to get rid of this.  However, if the plant shuts down; slows down; etc. I would get zero loads and be screwed. 

Having said this, I wonder if anyone really knows what the storage capacity is?  I read a few weeks back that storage was 95-97 percent full, yet stocks have continued to build and plants are still grinding.  The only thing I do know is that I will be feeding cattle in the summer for the first time in several years.  When I called a month or so ago to get a summer contract on distillers, I was unable to get one.  Typically, distillers in the summer are almost given away once several of the local lots clean out in May/June.  If we're to see a major slowdown, I'd guess it's going to be this summer rather than now. 

[rayjenkins]

Gored....always appreciate your comments....

my sense is that with the industry running at max capacity in late '11, most were inclined to lock up margins in Q1 of '12.....and if you had locked up positive margins, there would be no need to slow down an individual plant....kind of like the guy who had contracted his hogs for $40 when they went to $10 in 1998.....no need to make them lighter if you are getting the best price...

so, I agree the slowdown could come this summer, especially if cash corn is tight and basis screams....of course, it is possible that a big difference between US ethanol and Brazil gasoline sets the stage for them to import ethanol simply because of a price spread, not a shortage of ethanol as last year...

there are so many different ways this summer can play out......no one should be falling asleep due to dull and boring markets!