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Advisor

weekly ethanol stocks and production

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

 

I don't know where they are going to store all this unwanted, unneeded, bloated ethanol stocks.  I would think they can only store for so long.

 

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W

 

Seems like they are still producing at a high rate.  It has leveled off around the production of last november. 

 

 

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7 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

Wow!   On your chart for 2011 it counts 52 weeks.......sorry, just a casual observation.  Smiley Happy

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Visitor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

Yeah for some reason I thought there were 53 weeks hmmm i don't know maybe there are 52 after all...who knows guess it depends on the subject. LOL!!

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Senior Contributor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

I'd venture to guess they'll eventually get the price of ethanol below 2 bucks a gallon.  This will spur usage, but I don't think it will spur much enhanced production.  Most ethanol plants were covered in terms of margins though February and in some cases through at least part of March.  The interesting thing will be to witness what happens with weekly grind once we hit March 15th or so.  A local ethanol plant called it quits already.  Today is their last day for an undisclosed period of time.  We've got to be on the brink of exhausting our storage. 

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Contributor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

Thanks Buck. 

 

I think that they pre ground before the blenders credit expired.  Now space is full and grind has slowed, no doubt about it.  But the question is did they grind fast enough a few months ago to make up for the slow down now.  I bet at the end of the year the will probably grind about 5bil bushels.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

pre-ground?    That's a good one.

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Senior Contributor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

The marketing year started Sept. 1, 2011.  Thus far into the marketing year, we have ground on average 98.0 million bushels per week.  In order to grind 5 billion bushel for the entire year, we needed to average 96.2 million bushels.  With margins and profitability much greater in the first half of the marketing year, we only ground 1.8 million bushels per week more than what was needed.  Now that storage is full and margins are worse, it is quite possible we'll cut grind by more than 1.8 million bushels per week with over half of the marketing year left. 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: weekly ethanol stocks and production

We will store it in Brazil bound freightors before too long. I look for ethanol exports to explode in the near term.

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