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Senior Contributor

well do beans always go down.?

Do beans always go down after the sept report??
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4 Replies
Esteemed Advisor

Re: well do beans always go down.?

Not always. Smiley Indifferent

2003 comes to mind.

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Honored Advisor

Re: well do beans always go down.?

Also 2006, 2007, and 2010  to some degree....

The number of years with this much USDA "Hype" is limited....... I believe that would be since the ethanol mandate.  Some call it the "Monsanto Proclamation"  Not to be confused with Emancipation..............

 

Smiley Happy

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: well do beans always go down.?

Well we didnt get the frost rally we usually get . Do you guys see any similarities between this year and 2003 or the other years you mentioned.
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Honored Advisor

Re: well do beans always go down.?

Time is a better historian,,,,,  I would say  no.  I don't see too much similar.. only because way too often the Brazil crop becomes the regulator of upward movement after harvest.  The US reality is pretty much "in the market" by harvest time... Remember the buyers control the message....

 

History for corn before 2008 is hard to compare.....  I would call it history BCEM and history PCEM.....  Before the Clean Energy Mandate and History Post Clean Energy Mandate....

 

For beans Brazil has been the price limiter.... But about the time of the Clean energy Mandate China started buying enough to negate that production on the "rest of the world market"    I will believe that changed when I see it....  Where ever they buy it from, compared to the carry of both countries,,,, beans are a year to year--hand to mouth commodity.....

 

Right now we are getting poor messages ----- on the Brazil intentions... 

 

US -- the beans had some better growing conditions than corn did early....(lets get to something I know)..... there are increased acres in Ks in response to corn prices,  less corn acres...  but many of those acres are limited -- double crop behind wheat, early to get out quick, water damaged limiting stand, etc ......... lots of 20-30 bushel beans and some good beans in the eastern half

Point is USDA acres have never left their "normal" status.  as usual out of the corn belt acres will not make for big average yield...

IMO

The real issue this year is acres not yield....  It has been a goofy enough year that yield is not going to bust any bins unless we put it all in one.... The areas that lost acres to flooding and huge rainfall are strong bean areas, like Missouri,..... That is an acre hit both ways ---- and a yield hit as well to what did get planted...

Corn acres should be down....  bean acres should be up some, but may not be. Just haven't heard much about lower Mississippi acres...  And there is no insentive for brazil to do anything above average ....

 

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