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Veteran Advisor

what did everyone do with their crops ??

went to a presentation today....it was good...one needs to hear what others are saying.....sometimes being out here in the

sticks you might think you know all, but, come to find out you dont.

 

have a couple of questions for everyone........on wheat..........did you put it under loan....or take an ldp ?

on the fall crops, did you take out a loan ???

 

they had some interesing comments about basis, and how it relates to the above....their thinking is alot of crops went under loan.

 

 

the other thing i found out, and i didn't know, those "piles", they are under "emergency storage"......they must get a state

or usda permit to do that....there is one that is for covered and uncovered.

seems the premits might be for only 6 months or so..................

 

lastly the question was asked, the cost to move wheat from our little village to KC.........i was shocked on the rail cost.....

come to find out, it was cheaper to ship to the gulf !!!! and that's ""a bit further"".

 

i'm just curious, what have people herd a semi charages to haul per mile..wonder if it would be ship via truck

or rail.

 

i kind of hate to go to those meetings........i learn how little i know about the markets/grain trade

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: what did everyone do with their crops ??

I had a little wheat contracted. Of course in hindsight not nearly enough. Sold most of the rest off the combine. No ldp on that. But by the time the last fields got dry enough to get the combine through, basis was dropping and the board was dropping. So I sat on it and watched both drop more. Finally took a small ldp but still held it. I know, that was dumb. Now I see I can net .30 more selling it as new crop compared to selling now. When the time is right ill contract it as new crop wheat. I'd like to see a bit more rally and some basis improvement before I pull the trigger tho.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: what did everyone do with their crops ??

the reason i ask is that was one the questions asked.

here is what i "gleaned"....i guess the idea is (either correct or not i don't know), but the contention is, say for wheat, the loan is

for 9 months, so 9 months later (some young bucks can figure those days out in their heads....i've got to use my fingers),

alot of the wheat would be sold 9 months later......so things wouldn't really not go up untill after that (i should say basis get

better).........

the same was the thought on the "piles", that the permit is for so long, and needs to be moved before the permit is up.

 

we need to find out about the "emergency permit"....and how long they are....but the idea was that again, the basis

would get much better untill then.....plus some of the boys in WGN land have figured this out too.

 

also, on the corn, might be very true, since the quality of the corn wan't the best, and poor quality does not store well,

plus put it into emergency storage....they want to get it on down the pipeline.

 

i guess on the corn and soybeans, the "baby wouldn't be due" untill june, which is when they would figure alot might

get let go.......but again, they were higher than the loan.......

 

what got me was the cost....so they said....to get things to market....i'm n.e. of SW a ways, and getting a bu to kc was a few

cents over $1.....which i thought was high for rail.........now if we had a unit train load to the gulf.......it was very simular

in price, if not maybe a few cents lower........no....doesn't make sence to me.

 

it's those kinds of insights we need.....or at least helps me understand and plan/figure better.

 

the other thing is, they are talking more about options now....used to more on futures.....

 

was some talk of using short term options to protect, for such things as the upcomming jan 12 report....

 

while yes, that is true......and yes i understand the logic behind it......and perhaps would be wise....i'm afraid you could get

cought in a circle, that for every little thing........maybe buying something on friday since you don't know about the

weather over the weekend.....etc...etc.........i guess you must become smart enough to know "how important" is "important"...

i'm not quite there yet, but i can understand it.

 

overall impression on meeting....good

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: what did everyone do with their crops ??

oh, forgot about the wheat...........they did a hand up poll of if anyone planted less wheat.......all hands went up....

then divided, less than 10% some held up hand.....over 10% more hands went up.

personally....this year we put in  less wheat than we ever have.

also of note......most wheat was put in "economical"....meaning mostly bin run seed....not alot of fert, no agressive herbicide program.

 

my opinion, which was agreed with......yes, we'll see a fairly healthy "planted acres" number.......but the harvested acres is

where the key is....feeling is, alot will be grazed out, or even sprayed with roundup and planted to something else......

 

and if the wheat looks fair, it might be allowed to mature, but due to less than optium inputs, output will most likely lower.

 

but with stock/use at 60%.......that's alot.......but then again, those piles of wheat are going backwards in quality......

and drought, plus cold wx, plus less than optium input.............

 

might see % drop.....but........somehow, we need to seperate wheat classes.......hrw could make good drop, but

spring, could pull it up.......

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: what did everyone do with their crops ??

As far as corn, or in my case milo, the price did not get below loan rate, so no ldp.  I think there was little if any put under loan either, but that is "here".   I wanted to avoid a situation similar to wheat, so sold all mine before or at harvest. As to "tempotrary" storage, yes there is a time limit for customer owned grain in temp storage, but if the elevator owns it, it can stay out as long as they want ot leave it.  Im told basis should be3 improving, but it hasn't done much yet "here"

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