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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

what happened in 2002 ?

was playing with a bunch of charts tonight, and using all the fancy study stuff on things.......and i noticed a pattern......

in 2002 things seemed to change, the direction and volume of large, small and commerical......

 

a point for sw.....since about 2008, you can see a marked increase in volume. 

 

what i wished i could do is load all of them on a single page.........and see if there are any trends..........might have do drag

out some of my old text books about the "randomness of random".  it would be interesting to get that printed out and

with good resoluation, and then scan it into some programs that look for "patterns".......i think it might be most interesting.

it would also be interesting to overlay yeild, world supply, crop conditions, and just for fun add in local basis.

 

frankly, such an effort might be more productive, than anytime in past.  I think everyone is in agreement, that we

are, basicly, computer trading......computer have one flaw.....they are predictable....they use a structued formula.......

 

i guess the best way to explain is to use myself as a lab rat (hold your comments !).....the computer will be processing all the

data, and at that point in time, will do the "logical" thing..............then we have elcheapo....he also does his data accumulation.......

several different marketing outfits, reading things on the web....listening to people on agriculture.com.....if the dogs

have thick hair this year or not, and if the ring on a string above the computer goes clockwise, counter clockwise or back

and forth......he takes all that information, weighs it, and using his intellect.......makes a decision (whic is usually wrong).....

but since he is human, he will let some data influnce him more than others.......therefore making it difficult to guess

what he is going to do.......the computer on the other hand.....by tracking how he (the computer) ""thought" in the past,

gives you an insight on what his program acts like, what it weighs more than other , etc...........

 

trying to guess what elcheapo is thinking..........good luck !!!

 

the coprocessor has kicked in........and i think i feel another soapbox comming on.......more later.

 

 

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2 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: what happened in 2002 ?

My guess is that it is on account of the Futures Modernization Act having been pushed through by republicans in congress and signed by President Clinton in '99.

 

The old futures exchange structure was going away as the owners (members) sought to protect their interests in the coming electronic trading world by having the exchanges taken public.

 

The exchanges were most attractive by opening up to volume of any sort with position limits mostly eliminated and swaps and other derivatives unleashed.

 

As seen throughout the arc of then to now, we had quite a wild west blowoff but it was like heroin and the pusher is nowhere to be found when we need him.

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bruce MN
Advisor

Re: what happened in 2002 ?

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