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Advisor

what is everyones cop

Going forward is everyone so mortgaged that we go broke at 8 dollar beans and 3 dollar corn.  Have we as farmers mortgaged of future that much in the runnup.

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21 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

What ever you say Buck, just let us know. I won't sell $3 corn, I'll feed it.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

i try to police myself to the best of ability.

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Senior Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

You go first buck. Tell us what your corn and beans have been averaging this year and what your anticipated COP is next year

O that's right. You wouldn't know cause you don't actually engage in production agriculture.

You are what we like to call an ambulance chaser
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Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

I'm pretty good on beans and wheat but corn cop is so variable this far north each year.

So, bring on the bear market.
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Honored Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

Thoughtless question ----- every location and field has different COP all depending on yield............. which we don't have yet?

 

What does a mortgage have to do with COP?  Interest is cheap.  Very minor issue compared to fuel, seed and fertilizer costs.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

And it is the 12th of october.  Snow will fly on the last half of this harvest.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: what is everyones cop

the pieces here are starting to FIT together...............

Frequent Contributor

Re: what is everyones cop

When a person figures his cashflow he should figure rent on all land not just rented.  Depreciation on tractors, combines and other equipment.  Labor on himself and hired labor.  Then use a APH from at least 5 years back.

 

The last few years much land and equipment has been paid for and updated.  If we wear it out for free the next few it would seem we are all fools.  

 

I actually feel that a normal operation in our area will need around 4.40 on corn.  There are obviously some farmers that would have a much lower requirement because of better land with avg higher production. 

 

80% of the corn is raised by 20% of the farmers.  These farmers are somewhat leveraged as they have all grown in the last 5 years.  The next 5 years they will grow more as the aging farm base will want to quit while the younger farmers are "healthy". 

 

Honest cashflows don't change much across similiar operations.  Most cashflows are just not honest.

 

 

Advisor

why the hostility MT

I have a 53 average tigger.  If you include my presold bushels I am way over my COP and my number to aply to the average individual.  No great white hope here to knock down my yield in the great white north.  When I get my RA insurance figures I will tell you the final numbers.  Well I have to pul hedges too.

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