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Honored Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

sounds like welfare is the answer........ probably because we don't want to live through difficult times...  Smiley Frustrated

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Honored Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

SW, the day of reckoning is coming whether we do the right thing or kick the can down the road.   Trump will do the right thing (protect domestic businesses and workers) but that doesn`t innoculate us against the pains of the reckoning and I don`t know as the tough talking powder puffs can handle a reckoning....i`m not even sure I`ll handle the reckoning.  Smiley Happy

 

But consider this senario:  August 1, 2017: Trump and congress reluctantly follows in implementing tariffs to protect domestic factory workers to make good on campaign promises.  China and the rest of Asia announces a cancelation of ALL future purchases of US grains and meats in retaliation...central Kansas cash markets ..cash corn $1.75..cash wheat $2.25...cash fat cattle 65¢...lean hogs 25¢.  Okay, that is the correct thing for Trump to do but Market to Market would report "40% of midwest farms face insolvency within 12 months"  Liberals on here like Nox, Jenny and ElCheapo will be gloating "We tried to warn you about that Trump, now you`re all gonna go broke and I don`t feel a bit sorry for you!".    No good deed goes unpunished.

 

It seems to me that the ag industry should be proactive and have a farm bill that will be called by some "welfare".  Because when Market to Market reports that 40% of us will be broke in 12 months, it`s a little bit late to play catch up.   Getting a "doctor checkup now" as oppossed a year or two down the road after playing tough guy and then suddenly realizing that we are all at death`s doorstep might be too late like it was in the 80`s farm "crisis".

 

And I think ag products will be a pawn, because there`s a glut of it worldwide (or so they say) and it`s a low hanging fruit to punish US farmers while having plenty other world choices to shop.

 

As important as farm markets are to us, we are really small potatoes, if you do the math one man Bill Gates could buy all the US production of corn beans and wheat and still be considered  rich.   We`re small potatoes and there`s a target on our back...we`re the slowest gazelles in the herd.  Trump is going to do alot of needed good for this country and it`s important that he is a successful president, he does not need the legacy of presiding over a farm crisis that makes the 80`s look like a Sunday school picnic.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

i would too feel sorry for you, and pass the bottle along to you for a swig

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Honored Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

You`re a good man ElCheapo, I`ll tell anyone that, but I`ll have to pass on the booze, thank you though.   Smiley Happy

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Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

China won't not buy grain from us because they can't feed their people without imported grain.  Either north or South America is dedicated to feeding china.  If they quit buying from us South American production is bought and the other customers would need to come to us.  What China would really be worried about is trump boycotting grain to china.  The us has the upper hand in the long run.  Why do you think china is buying agriculture land throughout the world.

Honored Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

That`s good to hear VR Buck.  All the gurus parrot "the world is awash in wheat and corn has a wheat problem..too much wheat too much wheat"  I still think they`re jacking with us.  I don`t see that many corn piles, elevators that used to have 2 pads in years past now have one pad and they`ll be moving that shortly.  And I know farmers have put up "tin cans" and are storing even 2015 corn...but hasn`t that always been the case? Farmers have always stored because of tax avoidance, so it should equal out...i swear if corn went to $8 next week, there`d still be farmers holding out for $10.

 

This "trade war" talk might be just that, for 30 years weve been too afraid to confront the trading partners that rip us off for fear they`d stick our head in a toilet and give us a swirly and run our shorts up a flag pole.   It was the same deal election night, the Dow sold off 800 points and warnings about "Look what you did America!!  It`s gonna get worse!!" well it shot right through record highs, 180º opposite of what the fear monger "experts" were telling us.   Perhaps if we confront the trading bullies, grains will rally as well.

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Honored Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

Sorry BA it was low hanging fruit and I couldn't resist.

 

But I still wait for the day when we First, call for congress to govern the country instead of buying votes.

 

I would forfeit every idea presented in this discussion if congress would break up the seed genetics monopoly in the next 6 months.  Or the regional and noncompetitive monopolies of grain merchants.  Reduce the regulation and restriction on the production and sales of fertilizer.    There is far more economic gain for producers in these indeavors than we will ever see in a "direct payment" legislation. IMO

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Honored Advisor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

1. Raise support prices to a "profitable level".  I think a formula could be figured out by some of our extension economisit.  I am thinking

     such a price would produce a 7 to 10 % return of investment, or more.

    Totally agree.... the loan rate is the farm workers "minimum wage"... all those dem. congresses vote "MW" increases for labor of every kind, except agriculture.  The fact that they chose to leave us at a "MW" equivilent to the wage of the 1960's was at best demeaning.

 

2. Continue crop insurance.......... disagree..disolve it.... we allowed congress to divert the subsidy $$ directly to the insurance industry, with very little actual benefit for producers.... It is more expensive than it was privately and it masks the risk of fringe production.

 

3.  Continuation of the ARC/PLC/Individual programs......No accountability in the process.  Has too many political penalties imbedded.  Totally random and with the election result probably gone.... This one should be explained to the Supreme Court by the administration.  When two fields side by side are paid so inequitably... law suits should have been filed.  The ultimate in rediculous legislation.

 

4.  an experimental "marketing program"........  Very interesting idea, in light of CME going for global manipulation, I could see that being very beneficial ....... not sure what the political hammer will do to the paint job but I like that thought.

 

 

5.  continue with current conservation programs.........  we really got a mess on this one... I would shut them down,Most have outlived their intent, too much third party power, and  Too expensive, too corrupted, and not effective..... examples.... Iowa is wall to wall corn despite those programs, benefits have been passed on to future generations like a perminant programs in crp when it started out to be a 10 year program...30+ years ago.  CRP blocked a generation of new young farmers from getting a start in heavy use areas.........big topic.

 

6.  Provisions for a disaster program        It is all just too complicated, not because it works, because it has just been passed down too long, and has been reinterpretted too many times.  I work with a young newer farmer who has been signing up for several years and has yet to have anybody in his control office explain the present program.. ELcheapo,,,, the diseaster we face is very different from the 1980's and we need to address real issues.... not a drought or a hail storm issue......but the loss of private ownership of seedstock, land use rights, Property tax assessments,  water use control, land ownership by "created" entities, the function of foreign and non-profits in agriculture.  The rapidly loss of the ability to own arable land.... things like the taking of land by the federal government or well endowed private entities, or worse yet the control of it, to the point it is unsellable yet highly valued and taxed to the locked in owner.

 

There are some really big fish to fry... all we have in 2017 is the same as in 2012 and 2008...... hope and change.

 

We been treading water for a long time ----- the farm bill we are under is a heap of historic junk, rusting away..  guaranteeing ag stagnation and the death of agriculture as we know it.....The next form of ag management is waiting in the wings, and our numbers dwindle by the year, and in the cities... who cares if they eat a steak from Oklahoma or that exotic one from Argentina.  And maybe it is time to put the old "family farm" picture in the smithsonian and move on.  Stop asking congress to preserve the "vision" of the past.

We are selling the heart of it off a little at a time anyway.  I think my heart for ag. might have left with Garst & Thomas.  Knowing they were real people striving to maintain and be the best was a point of pride.  Now it is all corporate profits and secondary sales.

And worst of all I bought land and not stocks....  I feel like my grandfather who sat on our front porch in the 1970's and watched the tractors work in the field.  It was sad,,,, he was proud of his son's vision yet he had been one who lost everything thinking the tractor would never replace the horse.

The new tech world has the power to transform farming in glorious ways ...... and the power to take it all away.

 

Thanks to all who read for your tollerence of my discouragement this year.... Hope we will all enjoy a better 2017... 

And to all who don't share here any more,,, I miss ya  enjoy 2017..

 

Senior Contributor

Re: what is your solution to the problem(s)

Polish a few gears and keep'r safe hobby!