A mild winter and just enough rain have left wheat fields across the European Union on track for the third-largest harvest ever.

Farmers may gather 147.7 million metric tons of wheat in 2015, about 6 percent below last year’s record production, based on the average estimate from seven analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg.

“It’s not bullish for the market to know that production will be this high,” said Leopold Michallet, a consultant at Agritel, a Paris-based farm adviser. “We’re declining from a very good year, so regardless we remain at a high level.”


If the forecasts hold true, it will be a second year that good growing conditions produce a bumper wheat crop for Europe. Bigger supplies and a weakening currency have made the EU a top source of wheat for international buyers and the region is exporting the grain at the fastest pace in at least a decade, according to data from the European Commission.

Futures in Paris fell 8 percent this year, about half the decline of contracts in Chicago, the global benchmark.

Globally, wheat production is expected to fall 1.4 percentnext season and stockpiles will stay near a 15-year high, data from the International Grains Council show.

In France, the EU’s largest grower, about 92 percent of wheat was in good or very good condition in the week ended April 13, compared with 75 percent a year ago, according to data from crop office FranceAgriMer