But i think a dramatic shift to thE downside is a good signal to make sales if you need to... Wheat follows the seasonal very well each year: meaning lower prices following the spring. If you have to get rid of it why wait til harvest to sell?
I also observe other things too..
But if you can get 6-7 for srw it's a profitable venture. I think most years guys would envy that.
The stocks report, or any gov report seems to trigger over reaction both way a good part of the time. I'm in for a longer term than any reaction to a report might last. If I'm close to making a sale at that point because of a convergence of trends then I take reports into account because I shift to more immediate criteria.
A sharp unexpected drop for whatever reason is the signal to me to stop selling. Partly this is in reaction to my regional market in the PNW where coordinated shaking of the tree is a normal. I usually take these actions as a sure signal the exporters of SWW are having a hard time pulling wheat in and higher prices will be the result after. This is because there are still farmers who set close stops and the industry is relatively sure they'll get some wheat that way. And they do but, it's limited. Bidding resumes after.
Re: wheat ?? for Palouser
All the weather indicators here in australia point to dry than average or even worse.
But of course weather forecasting is a inexact science.
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