The wheat situation is very much affected by the Ukraine situation. Any supply situation that is as abruptly changed as this is has market impact. As long as the Ukraine is as much in the air as this it will continue to have an impact if contracts can't reliably enforced or financed due to the political situation.
The deeper fundamental, as I see it, is out of the last 4 years ,this year's projected ending inventories are the third lowest, though adequate. Exports from both the US and Europe are greater than forecast, which suggests that consumption will be greater than forecast. This more or less accounts for the idea that wheat has likely bottomed and bounced pending further developments, mainly this years production possibilities.
The next hurdle soon becomes the condition of wheat in the northern and southern Hemishere. South America has had continual problems so next up is Australa and the Southern Plains. Australia seems to be teetering on the brink in the SE from dryness and the idea the Pacific occilation will kick in and reinforce that trend. I put that in the column of 'watch closely'. The southern Plains is facing drought problems but still could turn around unless freeze damage is more evident.
Each of the above belong to different time frames. Let's say that Ukraine is still unable to fill contracts if/when the Aussies go into a full blown drought to finish off part of their wheat. Each situation by itself is minor. Both occurring at the same time is a bigger deal. Same with the southern Plains at this point. I don't know of any other major wheat regions that can be predicted now so I assume at least average production as a minimum.
Dividing up sales and evaluating each situation on its own seems reasonable. If events start merging in terms of production problems then I will slow down and look at the other trends that will be more evident by then and decide THEN whether to sell or watch. This all assumes my other obligations are met as I plan ahead for cash flows from seasonal costs. I never want to be in a situation where I have to sell only because of cash flow.
My sales are part of a dynamic process. I don't have a specific plan to implement but I watch trends to see if they will continue and grow or stay neutral. It is somewat like counting cards but not that mathematical. I don't have financial pressures and I've done my marketing this way for years. I do it because it works for me but others have different outlooks and requirements that dictate a different marketing style. I do not look back and I sleep like a baby. Not eveyone has my temperment.
I do a lot of reading and research on current developments and I have a network of sources (mostly individuals) that I respect.
