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swmnfarmer
Member

where did everybody go

Just wondering if anybody knows where frequent writers  like mn john, Palouser, north corn, Kraft-T, ect. have gone to post.  These and others kept the conversations and discussions lively and interesting. I may not have agreed with them all the time but  it kept the thought process active. If anybody knows what site they have moved to or why they have given up here please let me know. Other than Marketeye it is almost not worth coming here every day. Now dont get mad the rest of you its just seems like the loss of a bunch of friends has been foisted upon us.

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14 Replies
nwobcw
Advisor

Re: where did everybody go

Do you think it could be the change in format?   Some people just know to leave well enough alone.

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mspencerfarms
Contributor

Re: where did everybody go

I haven't been on here in sometime mainly due to the format changes.  It's incredibly boring.  I felt that before this site had an easier, more interesting site than any  of the others that I had visited but not anymore.   I'll agree that there are very few posters on here,  so I rarely even come here anymore.   I'm in the process of fading away also.

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northcorn
Contributor

Re: where did everybody go

swmn - Hi hope things are going good in your area so far so go around here have been busy building a new office so I have curtailed my posting which has been easy to do because it has mostly been a pretty dull market. I remain short the market from a few weeks ago seems like a grind down market to me but maybe they can get a fire lit under this thing yet. I appears Oat's don't know, corn laid on the floor as oat's gained .80  Point's to remember  1) we are fast approaching the seasonal down swing area around June 25 maybe counter seasonal will happen but I doubt it.   2) crop rating's ( weather you want to believe them or not) have historically proven out the correlation between the rating on or about June 22 and production this years rating will be at or near the highest on record.  Beans have a way to go on seasonal's and also have their most important reproduction month ahead but I'm not sure with everything in a they will have to fight that they can hold out.

 

My play of the day is for HRS wheat 2012 season crop sell CBOT Sept. 2012 wheat ( Crazy big carry ) then spread March 2012 cbot vs same month MN wheat  then sell .30-.40 otm calls for dec. 2011 on the same number of bushels.

 

You Might be surprise at what you will net for your  spring wheat for 2012 almost back to the numbers of 2009

 

I for one liked the old format better but then my grandpa like the picker and sheller better than the Combine so maybe it's genetics 

Rob SC NE
Contributor

Re: where did everybody go

Amen on that last point, brother:

 

"I for one liked the old format better but then my grandpa like the picker and sheller better than the Combine so maybe it's genetics."

 

I think we'll get used to this new format. It's got some stuff that's okay, too.

 

Rob

 

jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: where did everybody go

Well, I will test the waters.  If this post doesn't bring much response, the site is officially on life support. 

 

Is it possible the the downward adjustment in old corn stocks is the beginning of reality due the lighter test weights taking more bushels to produce end product?  For such a record crop in 09, why is there less corn under loan than last year?  Around here(southern IA), very little corn still on the farm...conditions just would not allow for longer storage.  Does anyone track soybeans left under loan anymore...never have I seen it anywhere near these low levels in June.  I am not saying we don't have a good crop coming on(most areas don't have the flooding in this area), todays genetics are so much better....but one does start to wonder if last years crop production numbers might have the same problems with the government counters as they doing measuring the oil spill in the gulf.

 

 

jjoseph
Frequent Contributor

Re: where did everybody go

I think the reason that there is less under loan is that there was a somewhat of a bumper crop and prices where good whereas 75 % of it was sold and 25 % the farmers are playing with that do not need the money so just leave it in the bin and wait.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: where did everybody go

I'm still here as is palouser. I have not participated as much in marketing talk as I do not find it very Interesting at the time. Supplies are adequate and crops are doing well for the most part. I am waiting or hoping for better opportunities to market some new crop but perhaps that is just wishful thinking.

 

I finalized my 2009 sales a couple of weeks ago as I became discouraged with the chip chip chipping away at crop prices. Since then they have picked up a little steam and I am a bit encouraged but not greatly so.

 

Ray Jenkins comments on the prospect of early corn harvest and ample old crop supplies did capture  my attention.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: where did everybody go

I post more in other forums on this site than on Marketing Talk.  I've more or less finished up my marketing for hedging new crop.  I have been steadily selling old crop corn and really wishing I'd sold out earlier.  Beans are long gone, so not much to write about there.

In some ways, this year has felt like the norm, with some spring highs to sell into, but in other ways I'm not sure I feel "in the groove" about marketing.

 

Talked last night to a guy who buys 3,000,000 bushels of corn a year for hogs.  He said corn is coming in at 70 degrees at least and some in the 80's.  He had one load at 100, but it was still good.  He blends this corn.  He's seeing corn in the 17's and up for moisture.  Virtually no test weights above 54, with plenty in the low '50's.  He thinks there is a lot of corn quality issues out there.  This is southeast Iowa and no, it is not Oakville.

 

This guy claimed that the Cedar Rapids processors are costing him a dime a bushel on price.  He's getting all the corn he wants and has been buying at a year average of 3.37 before hedging offsets.

 

Of course, he's in the market all the time.  He is not a farmer with more seasonal cash flows.  Still, it was interesting to talk to him.

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: where did everybody go

Well, I would believe some of what you are saying is true.  But....I know of very few with 09 beans left.  And the loan number is only 30% of normal for this time of year...I have tracked loan numbers along time...and I have never seen anything like this.  But then, we can always import from So. America as we have done in the past.  I don't think any grain farmers in So. IA, N. MO are going to have to worry about storage problems. 

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